Wind Advisory 1, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS73 KGLD 020127
NPWGLD

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MST SUN JAN 1 2006


COZ091-092-020230-
/O.CAN.KGLD.WI.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-060102T0200Z/
KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BURLINGTON...CHEYENNE WELLS
627 PM MST SUN JAN 1 2006

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

WINDS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WILL CONTINUE THIS
EVENING THEN SLOWLY DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MST SUN JAN 1 2006

.UPDATE...WILL BE ISSUING A WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 01Z FOR KIT CARSON
AND CHEYENNE COUNTIES OF COLORADO.

AT 22Z WIND GUSTS OF 39 KTS WERE REPORTED AT KITR WITH 46 KTS AT
KLIC AND 41 MPH AT KIT CARSON COLORADO. LATEST RUC 750 WINDS SHOW THE
AXIS OF 40 KT WINDS SITTING FROM NEAR AKRON COLORADO SOUTHEAST
THROUGH BURLINGTON (KITR) TO TRIBUNE KANSAS. KGLD VAD WIND ALSO
REPORTING 41 KTS ONE GATE ABOVE THE SURFACE. FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS THE RUC INCREASES THE 750 WINDS TO GREATER THEN 50 KTS. MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARENT THE GREATEST BUT DO COINCIDE WITH THE
STRONGER WINDS. AFTER 01Z THE STRONGER WINDS SLOWLY SINK SOUTH AND
AWAY FROM THE AREA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 200 PM MST SUN JAN 1 2006)

SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - WEDNESDAY)
NARROW BUT PERSISTENT BAND OF PRECIPITATION SET UP NEAR THE KANSAS
AND COLORADO BORDER THIS MORNING. NAM/SREF SEEM TO BE DOING THE BEST
WITH THIS ALMOST MESOSCALE FEATURE. NAM12 DOES SHOW A SMALL BUT VERY
STRONG BAND OF 650MB FRONTOGENESIS COINCIDING WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE PRECIPITATION. THIS FORCING MECHANISM FORECAST TO GRADUALLY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN BECOMING WEAK AND DIFFUSE
TONIGHT. IT REALLY NEVER MOVES AS IT WEAKENS...PERHAPS A SUBTLE
SHIFT TO THE EAST. MEANWHILE BEST MID LEVEL MOISTURE DEFINITELY
MAKES A SHIFT TO THE EAST. GIVEN ALL OF THAT HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN
HOW THIS WILL TRANSPIRE THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
LIGHT RAIN IN ALL BUT THE EXTREME WESTERN PART OF THE CWA...AND PLAN
ON CARRYING SOME SLIGHT TO LOW CHANCE POPS THROUGH 06Z...HIGHEST IN
THE EAST. TOP DOWN CHARTS OFF THE ETA BUFR SOUNDINGS FOR MCK AND GLD
YIELD A COLD LIGHT RAIN AS SURFACE LAYER WET BULB TEMPERATURES HOVER
AROUND +2C.

SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON MONDAY. SOUNDINGS ARE
DRY SO ONLY QUESTION WILL BE TEMPERATURES. 850MB TEMPERATURES
SUPPORT LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S ACROSS THE BOARD. GIVEN FULL INSOLATION
AND DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO SURFACE WINDS WILL GO TOWARDS HIGHER END
OF THAT RANGE.

NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON TUESDAY. SURFACE
TROUGH/DRY LINE FORECAST TO BISECT THE CWA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...THEN COLD FRONT TO SWEEP THROUGH LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. STRONG DOWNSLOPING WILL OCCUR WEST OF THE SURFACE
TROUGH...AND TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY SOAR WELL INTO THE 60S AS
ADVERTISED BY THE MET. SOUNDINGS AND JET LEVEL UVVS SUGGEST CIRRUS
MAY BE A FACTOR FOR TEMPERATURES. WILL HEDGE TOWARDS THE WARMER MET
IN THE WEST...BUT CLOSER TO THE MAV EAST OF EXPECTED LOCATION OF THE
SURFACE TROUGH. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...FORECAST 700-650MB BAND OF
FRONTOGENESIS FORMS OVER EASTERN COLORADO TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN
WEAKENS AS IT CROSSES THE CWA TUESDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE PROFILES NOT
IMPRESSIVE...BUT MODELS HAVE NOT DONE VERY WELL WITH MOISTURE
FORECASTS LATELY. TEMPTED TO PUT IN SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS...BUT
MAY WAIT FOR ANOTHER FORECAST CYCLE TO SEE IF MOISTURE PROFILES
IMPROVE. WIND MAY BE AN ISSUE TUESDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT
BELIEVE IT WILL BE BRIEF GIVEN NOCTURNAL TIMING/LACK OF MIXING.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND A BIT COOLER BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL AS THE
NEXT SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

LONG TERM... (THURSDAY - SUNDAY)
UPPER PATTERN WILL STAGNATE AS SPRAWLING UPPER RIDGE WILL SET UP
RESIDENCE FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA NORTH ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. 12Z
OPERATIONAL RUN OF THE GFS TRENDING STRONGLY TOWARDS THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH 500MB HEIGHTS/1000-500MB THICKNESSES/850MB
TEMPERATURES. IN FACT NEW RUN NOW MUCH STRONGER WITH THE WEST COAST
RIDGE. THIS LENDS SOME CONFIDENCE TO THE FORECAST...WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO REFLECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH SATURDAY. DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO COME OVER THE RIDGE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. MOST OF THAT ENERGY WILL BE DEFLECTED WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS. NONETHELESS TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE KNOCKED
DOWN A FEW DEGREES ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE TRAILING FRONT THAT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM MST THIS EVENING FOR COZ091-COZ092.

&&

DDT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
515 AM MST SUN JAN 1 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-021200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
615 AM CST SUN JAN 1 2006 /515 AM MST SUN JAN 1 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LAMMERS