Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
240 PM MDT MON JUN 5 2006

.DISCUSSION...
COMPLEX WEATHER SCENARIO TODAY WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER TAKING
SHAPE. 12Z ANALYSIS INDICATES A S/WV TROF NEAR NRN MT WITH ITS SFC
REFLECTION OVR THE DAKOTAS. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIES FROM THE DAKOTAS
TO THE NE PANHANDLE THEN WESTWARD ACROSS NRN UT AND CO. CONVECTION
STILL ONGOING IN NORTH CENTRAL KS...TRIGGERED BY AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
IN ERN KS. SEVERE ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY BROKEN OUT IN NORTH CENTRAL
NE AS EVIDENT FROM LATEST RADAR IMAGERY. EXPECT MORE STORMS TO
INITIATE IN THE SAME RGN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. ALTHOUGH SPEED
SHEAR IS NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE...SOUTHEASTERLY LLVL FLOW WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT CAN HELP MAKE UP FOR THE LACK OF SPEED SHEAR. ALL IN ALL
THINGS ARE SHAPING UP TO BE A BUSY NIGHT PER SEVERE WATCH #437 IN
EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT/9 PM CDT.

LINGERING ANVIL DEBRIS FROM TONIGHTS CONVECTION WL EXIT THE ERN PRTN
OF THE CWA TUE LEAVING PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES AS SFC HIGH BUILDS INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. UPSLOPE GRADIENT WL KEEP TEMPS A LITTLE
COOLER...SO WL UNDERCUT GUIDANCE BY A FEW DEGREES WITH HIGHS
REACHING INTO THE UPPER 80S MOST PLACES. A SMALL AXIS OF
WAA/MOISTURE ADVECTION DEVELOPS OVER ERN CO WITH TIME HEIGHT
CROSS SECTIONS INDICATING WEAK LIFT. WL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRW
IN PRTNS OF ERN CO...ALTHOUGH COVERAGE WL BE ISOLATED AT BEST. SPC
DAY 2 OUTLOOK PLACES SLIGHT RISK TO THE WEST AND SOUTH OF CHEYENNE
AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES WHERE THE BETTER LIFT AND INSTABILITY COEXIST.

H5 RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST WED. A WEAK VORT/SPEED MAX WL MOVE INTO
ERN CO ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE. SFC TEMPS WL WARM UP INTO
THE LOWER 90S AS SUGGESTED BY H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S CELSIUS.
ALTHOUGH SUBSIDENCE IS EVIDENT IN TIME HEIGHT CROSS SECTIONS OVER
WRN KS INITIALLY...A SFC LOW IN THE NRN HIGH PLAINS WL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT TO TRIGGER A FEW TRA...MAINLY IN THE WRN HALF OF THE RGN
WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SUFFICENT LLVL INSTABILITY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT IN RESPECT TO FLATTENING
THE RIDGE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS A SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE NW COAST.
DIFFERENCES LIE IN THE STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. THE GFS IS MUCH QUICKER...PLACING THE H5 LOW IN SRN
CANADA...NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS SAT EVENING WHILE THE ECMWF HOLDS IT
OVR NRN ID. THE GFS APPEARS TO BE OVERDOING THE TIMING OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ITS SFC REFLECTION OVR THE NE PANHANDLE BY 12Z THU. A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA BY FRI. HELD ONTO THE
SLIGHT CHANCE OF TRW FOR CONTINUITY ALTHOUGH THE LLVL MOISTURE DOES
NOT LOOK TOO IMPRESSIVE. 12Z GFS RUN BRINGS THIS FRONT BACK NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT FRI...SUGGESTING WARMER TEMPS ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
TRW. IN FACT...LATEST MEX GUIDANCE HINTS AT 100 DEGREE TEMPS FOR
GLD. FOR NOW BUMPED TEMPS UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES...BUT HELD OFF ON
INSERTING TEMPS THIS WARM ATTM. LOOKS LIKE AN UNSETTLED PATTERN WL
CONTINUE INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND... ALTHOUGH HELD OFF ON INSERTING ANY
POPS. HOWEVER IF MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THIS
PATTERN...LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REVISIT ADDING POPS FOR SAT/SUN.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

CLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1010 AM MDT MON JUN 5 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-061200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1110 AM CDT MON JUN 5 2006 /1010 AM MDT MON JUN 5 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

EARLY MORNING THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER
PRODUCED AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT MOVED SOUTH INTO WESTERN KANSAS
AND EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS
BEHIND THIS BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO REMAIN IN
PLACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS LATE IN THE DAY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG ANY LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

MCGUIRE

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
629 PM MDT MON JUN 5 2006

KSZ001-002-013-014-NEZ079-080-060130-
CHEYENNE-DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RAWLINS-SHERMAN-THOMAS-
729 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...CHEYENNE
COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...SHERMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...
THOMAS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...DUNDY COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA AND HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 625 PM MDT(725 PM CDT)...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF WAUNETA TO 9 MILES NORTH OF MCDONALD TO 6 MILES NORTH OF
RULETON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THESE STORMS.

PEOPLE IN EASTERN DUNDY...HITCHCOCK...RAWLINS...SHERMAN...
SOUTHEASTERN CHEYENNE AND THOMAS COUNTIES...SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED IF THE STORMS MOVE
INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE WEATHER THREATENS.

THEDE

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