Severe Thunderstorm Warning 6, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
256 PM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...FCST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE CENTER ON PCPN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AND TEMPS DURING THAT TIME.

LATEST WV IMAGE INDICATES CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVR
THE MT/CANADIAN BORDER. A SFC CLD FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO WRN NE
WITH A DRY LINE IN WRN KS. AHEAD OF THIS DRYLINE...SFC DEWPOINTS
HAVE JUMPED INTO THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S. RUC ANALYSIS PLACES
SOME INSTABILITY OVR THE CENTRAL AND ERN PRTNS OF THE CWA WITH SFC
CAPES AOA 400-1000 J/KG. EXPECT TSTRMS TO BREAK OUT THIS EVENING
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT TOWARD THE EASTERN 1/4 OF CWA. MAIN
THREATS FOR SVR APPEAR TO BE DAMAGING WINDS WITH HIGH LCL HEIGHTS.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...A MUCH COOLER DAY IS IN STORE WED AND
ESPECIALLY THU WHERE THE WINDS WL HAVE A GREATER UPSLOPE
COMPONENT. KEPT A FEW LINGERING TRW IN THE EASTERN 1/4 OF CWA BUT
THE MAJORITY OF WED APPEARS TO BE DRY. DID GO SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE
MAV GUIDANCE WED AS FCSTED TEMPS WERE A TAD TOO COOL AND EXPECTING
CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE EVENING. A S/WV TROF WL
DROP ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS THU. ALTHOUGH THE GREATEST LIFT
APPEARS JUST NORTH OF THE AREA...BELIEVE THERE WL BE ENOUGH LIFT
TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. FOLLOWED THE MAV GUIDANCE ON THU
AS THE MET IS WAY UNDER DOING TEMPS DESPITE DECENT CLOUD COVER
WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. RESIDUAL SHOWERS WL LINGER ON FRI BEFORE
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE SUPPRESSES ANY ADDITIONAL
PCPN SAT.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PACKAGE...GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER FROM
EACH OTHER A BIT WITH THE GFS FCSTING MORE ZONAL FLOW. DECIDED TO
HOLD OFF ON MAKING ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED ATTM AND ONLY
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

CLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1058 AM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-031200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1158 AM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006 /1058 AM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND COMBINE WITH AN INCREASING AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE
AREA OF INSTABILITY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
WITH A FEW OF THE STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE MAINLY EAST OF A
MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
SOUTH OUT OF THE REGION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
646 PM MDT TUE MAY 02 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 2 NE ALVIN              40.33N 102.05W
05/02/2006                   YUMA               CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PICKUP TRUCK TOPPER BLOWN OFF. BRIEF WIND GUST ESTIMATED
            AT 60 MPH.

&&

SBLAIR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
930 PM MDT TUE MAY 2 2006

KSZ003-030400-
DECATUR-
1030 PM CDT TUE MAY 2 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR DECATUR COUNTY...

AT 1029 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR JENNINGS...OR 12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
OBERLIN...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

STASSER

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