Severe Thunderstorm Warning 34, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
339 PM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR TONIGHT
THEN TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. LATEST SURFACE MAP
ANALYSIS SHOWED A WEAK STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA TO
NEAR GOODLAND AND THEN SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL COLORADO.
VIGOROUS TROUGH AND VORT MAX SEEN ON WATER VAPOR AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER NORTHWEST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST UTAH MOVING
EASTWARD. CONVECTION ALREADY SEEN BREAKING OUT OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO AND WILL SPREAD SLOWLY EASTWARD
INTO EASTERN COLORADO BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO WESTERN KANSAS BY
THIS EVENING.

MODELS INITIALIZED WELL THIS MORNING WITH REGARD TO POSITION AND
SPEED OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO OUR WEST. NAM WAS LITTLE BETTER
WITH THESE FEATURES AS WELL AS WITH MOISTURE AND TEMPERATURE
FIELDS.

FOR TONIGHT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP TO OUR WEST AND SPREAD
EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. DYNAMICS ARE STRONGER WITH THE TROUGH AND VORT
MAX TONIGHT SO WILL EXPECT STORMS TO PROCEED EASTWARD OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH AND VORT MAX APPROACHES OUT OF COLORADO. EXPECT LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT TO BE MILD IN THE MIDDLE 50S TO MIDDLE 60S.
WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS WESTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA WITH HIGH
CHANCE POPS ELSEWHERE.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE
REGION WITH DEEPER UPPER LOW PASSING TO OUR NORTH. LOOKS LIKE
MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS SWEEP TO THE EAST OF OUR CWA THUS WILL GO
WITH DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT OF A CONCERN WITH
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR MY EASTERN COLORADO ZONES FOR THE AFTERNOON AS
RH VALUES DROP VERY LOW ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
WENT CLOSER TO MET TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MIDDLE 80S NORTHWEST TO LOWER 90S EAST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 50S.

AS FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST DID NOT MAKE MUCH CHANGES. KEPT
DRY WEATHER FOR THE REST OF THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. DID RAISE HIGH
TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES ON FRIDAY FOR HIGHS AS RIDGING
MAINTAINS CONTROL OVER OUR REGION WHILE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO OUR
WEST BY NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
 AFTERNOON FOR COZ252-COZ253-COZ254.

&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...DELAYED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1050 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-231300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1150 AM CDT MON MAY 22 2006 /1050 AM MDT MON MAY 22 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER LIKELY THIS EVENING IN WESTERN PORTION
OF THE TRI STATE AREA...

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
FRONT RANGE OF COLORADO AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE TRI STATE AREA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. INSTABILITY AND WIND SHEAR
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING
SUPERCELLS...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE
ALONG AND WEST OF A MCCOOK NEBRASKA TO LEOTI KANSAS LINE THIS
EVENING.

THE SEVERE THREAT WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT THUNDERSTORMS
COULD PERSIST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH LIGHTNING BECOMING THE
PRIMARY HAZARD.

SEVERE DROUGHT CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA HAVE RESULTED IN DRY AND
BRITTLE FUELS. LIGHTNING STRIKES COULD POTENTIALLY START GRASS AND
BRUSH FIRES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR A LARGE
PART OF THE TRI STATE AREA.

JDK