Severe Thunderstorm Warning 210, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

.DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TONIGHT AND INTO THE MONDAY IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK BEING
THE SECONDARY CONCERN.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-
STATE REGION AHEAD OF A SURFACE TROUGH IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND THE
UPPER LOW SPINNING OUT OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO NORTHEAST
COLORADO. THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND
TRACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AS THE MAIN ZONE OF NEAR SURFACE
CONVERGENCE PUSHES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION.

HAVE GONE WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM GUIDANCE WITH A NUDGE FROM
THE RUC IN THE SHORT TERM PERIODS. THE TREND WITH THE LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TO HANG ONTO COOLER TEMPERATURES A LITTLE MORE
DURING THE WORK WEEK EVEN THOUGH A RIDGE ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE
ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS WITH GENERALLY HIGHER PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE BOUNDARY DUE
ACROSS THE REGION ON FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH HAVE NOT BOUGHT ENTIRELY
INTO THIS SOLUTION...HAVE TRIMMED A FEW DEGREES OFF TEMPERATURES
MAINLY IN THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE WORK WEEK.

THE UPPER LOW IS SLOW TO MOVE OUT OF THE REGION AS IT IS
DISCONNECTED FROM THE MAIN UPPER FLOW ALOFT. THE MAIN UPPER LOW
CENTER EVENTUALLY MAKES IT TO THE VICINITY OF EASTERN NEBRASKA AND
IOWA BY LATE MONDAY. AS IT DOES...AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND ROCKIES WITH ADDITIONAL SHORT WAVE ENERGY ROTATING AROUND
THE LOW CENTER AND ACROSS THE TRI-STATE REGION. THIS ENERGY
COMBINED WITH THE DECENT AMOUNTOF MOISTURE BELOW 500MB AND WEAK
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD KEEP SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THEN WITH THE UPPER
RIDGE IN PLACE OVER THE PLAINS AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK...HAVE WARMED TEMPERATURES
BACK UP TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES BY MID WEEK.

ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
ACCOMPANY THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT BEGINS TO MOVE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
REGION EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS IS SEVERAL HOURS EARLIER THAN
THE PREVIOUS GFS RUN AND HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE TIMING
IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1030 AM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-281200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1130 AM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006 /1030 AM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE
TRI-STATE AREA.

A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OUT OF THE ROCKIES TODAY AND NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL
AND STRONG WIND THE PRIMARY THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
WEST OF A LINE FROM TRENTON NEBRASKA TO GOVE KANSAS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP INTO A LARGE COMPLEX THIS EVENING WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE
THROUGH MONDAY AS A SLOW MOVING STORM SYSTEM WEAKENS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

MCGUIRE/JDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
150 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ001-272015-
CHEYENNE-
250 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 246 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTH OF HAIGLER...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF ST. FRANCIS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

KILLINGSWORTH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ002-272130-
RAWLINS-
404 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 359 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES SOUTH OF BEARDSLEY...OR 12 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF ATWOOD...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

KILLINGSWORTH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
310 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ027-028-272145-
LOGAN-WALLACE-
410 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR LOGAN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS AND WALLACE
COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL KANSAS...

AT 309 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES NORTH OF WALLACE...OR 17 MILES NORTHEAST
OF SHARON SPRINGS...AND MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE.

JRM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
334 PM MDT SUN AUG 27 2006

KSZ002-272200-
RAWLINS-
434 PM CDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...

AT 430 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ATWOOD...AND MOVING EAST AT
20 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS INCLUDES HIGHWAY 36 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 59 AND 69.