Severe Thunderstorm Warning 209, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
200 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

.DISCUSSION...MID/UPPER RIDGE REMAINS PLANTED ACROSS TEXAS WITH ONE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND ANOTHER
TROUGH BUILDING INTO THE GREAT BASIN AREA. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING
RAPIDLY SOUTH ACROSS NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SHOULD MOVE SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA PRIOR TO SUNRISE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...320K ISENTROPIC LIFT/H7 WAA WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS SFC BOUNDARY SETTLES SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST AROUND H5 RIDGE OVER MID LEVEL
BAROCLINIC ZONE LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THIS ADDS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH LIMITED
INSOLATION/LOW LEVEL CAA IN POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. HIGHS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 70S ACROSS MUCH OF THE WESTERN ZONES. THE
DIFFICULTY FOR TODAY WILL BE PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE AXIS OF SFC BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE SHUNTED SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG/IMMEDIATELY BEHIND SURGING COLD FRONT. RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION TO H3 JET/H7-H3 DIV Q SUPPORT POST-FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION AND INCREASED POPS BY LATE AFTERNOON CARRYING A LIKELY
MENTION ACROSS THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST ZONES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA.

SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...SUBSIDENCE IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY
BEFORE LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES ACROSS THE WESTERN ZONES LATE IN
THE PERIOD AS POSITIVELY TILTED H5 TROUGH DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE
ROCKIES. THEREFORE ADJUSTED POPS BY LOWERING THEM IN THE MORNING
HOURS AND REINTRODUCING THEM ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE IN THE PERIOD AND CONTINUING A CHANCE MENTION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND AROUND 80 IN THE EAST.

SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...THE TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL TRANSLATE
EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DURING BOTH PERIODS. UNSEASONABLY COOL
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH LIMITED INSOLATION/WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7...NO CHANGES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

MCGUIRE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1009 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-261200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1109 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2006 /1009 AM MDT FRI AUG 25 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...HOWEVER AT THIS
TIME STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

MCGUIRE/JDK

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