Alert archive / Kansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 202, NWS Goodland, KS

August 18, 2006Norton County, Kansas

NWS Goodland, KS issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 18, 2006, 5:46 PM CDT for Norton County, Kansas. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Aug 18, 2006, 5:46 PM CDT (22:46 UTC)
Expired: Aug 18, 2006, 6:20 PM CDT
In force: 34 min
Issued by: NWS Goodland, KS
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Norton County, KS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Goodland, KS wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 18, 2:38 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 18, 2:38 PM CDT, 3 hours 8 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT FRI AUG 18 2006

.SHORT TERM... (TONIGHT - MONDAY)
VERY MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS CONTINUES TO BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AROUND LARGE RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. DESPITE THE LACK OF GOOD UPPER FORCING
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT/POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BE
MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE BUMPED UP POPS ACCORDINGLY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH
SEEMS APPROPRIATE GIVEN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THAT HAS OCCURRED IN
THOSE AREAS THE PAST FEW DAYS. MAY END UP EXTENDING IT PAST
06Z...SINCE RAIN WILL BE LINGERING WELL INTO SATURDAY. EXPECT RAIN
TO GRADUALLY END SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SATURDAY EVENING FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST.

PRECIPITATION FORECAST FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY NOT CLEAR CUT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND THE RETURN
CIRCULATION WILL ENSURE AT LEAST SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. 500MB FLOW WILL BE WEAK/ZONAL ON
SUNDAY...TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST ON MONDAY. THERE ARE HINTS OF
PVA BOTH DAYS...BUT HARD TO SAY IF THIS IS AN ARTIFACT OF MODEL
CONVECTIVE PARAMETERIZATION FROM THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. AIR
MASS DOES APPEAR TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY...AS FORECAST BY 700MB THETA-E
AND 700-850MB RH. BOTTOM LINE IS THAT WILL CARRY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY...BUT PLAY IT CONSERVATIVELY DRY FOR MONDAY.
OFFICIAL FORECAST ALREADY REFLECTS THIS THINKING SO LITTLE IF ANY
CHANGE WAS MADE.

TEMPERATURES...CLOUDINESS ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP HIGHS ON THE COOL
SIDE. SUNDAY AND MONDAY EXPECT MORE SUN...BUT WITH 850MB
TEMPERATURES ONLY RECOVERING TO THE UPPER TEENS/LOWER 20S CELSIUS
STILL EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW/NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM... (TUESDAY - FRIDAY)
LONGWAVE PATTERN WILL BE UNDERGOING A CHANGE THIS PERIOD. RIDGE
WHICH HAS BEEN SITTING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FORECAST TO
RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AREA. THIS WILL PROMOTE A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE LOCAL AREA. A STRONG NORTHERN STREAM
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA. THIS SYSTEM WILL EJECT A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS INTO THE NORTHWEST FLOW. ALTHOUGH THE
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT ENTIRELY IN AGREEMENT ON THE DETAILS...THE
ECMWF NOTABLY STRONGER WITH THE RIDGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...BOTH MODELS SHOW A SURFACE BOUNDARY MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
IN THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. AS A RESULT WILL
HAVE SOME MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THOSE PERIODS. POST FRONTAL LOW
LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS FOR THE
END OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ALSO CONTINUES WITH
POSSIBLE EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THIS COMBINATION USUALLY SPELLS
PRECIPITATION...AND INDEED GFS BREAKING OUT A CONVECTIVE BLOB AT THE
END OF DAY 7. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN MODEL QPF OUTPUT AT THAT TIME
RANGE NOT VERY HIGH...THE PATTERN WARRANTS AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE
MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT /1 AM CDT/ TONIGHT FOR
     KSZ016-KSZ027-KSZ028-KSZ029-KSZ041-KSZ042.

NE...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ092.

&&

JDK

Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 18, 11:45 AM CDT, 6 hours 1 minute before

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In the hours before

Special weather statement, Aug 18, 2:57 PM CDT, 2 hours 49 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 18, 3:25 PM CDT, 2 hours 21 minutes before

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Special weather statement, Aug 18, 4:52 PM CDT, 54 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 18, 5:33 PM CDT, 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
433 PM MDT FRI AUG 18 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0417 PM     HAIL             10 W OBERLIN            39.82N 100.72W
08/18/2006  M0.75 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

0420 PM     HAIL             11 W OBERLIN            39.82N 100.74W
08/18/2006  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            KS   PUBLIC

0425 PM     TSTM WND GST     14 E ATWOOD             39.81N 100.78W
08/18/2006  E70 MPH          RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

            ROOF SHINGLES BLOWN OFF HOME...4 INCH TREE
            UPROOTED...SEVERAL TREE BRANCHES DOWN

&&

SBLAIR

Special weather statement, Aug 18, 5:40 PM CDT, 6 minutes before

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Local storm report, Aug 18, 5:41 PM CDT, 5 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Goodland, KS issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 17, 7:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Wichita	35 min
Aug 17, 8:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Wichita	113 min
Aug 17, 8:50 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Greeley, Wichita	40 min
Aug 17, 9:04 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Greeley	116 min
Aug 18, 4:06 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	GLD	Gove, Graham, Greeley, Logan, Wallace, Wichita	21 hr
Aug 18, 4:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Wallace	24 min
Aug 18, 5:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Decatur, Rawlins	38 min
Aug 18, 6:19 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Graham, Norton	3 hr
Aug 18, 6:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Sheridan	26 min
Aug 17, 7:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	51 min
Aug 17, 7:52 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	113 min
Aug 18, 6:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Cheyenne	28 min
Aug 18, 5:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	GLD	Red Willow	41 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Kansas, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.