Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
241 PM MDT MON MAY 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE 20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A TROUGH ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST.
DEWPOINTS WERE DROPPING INTO THE 40S BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH
DEWPOINTS AS LOWS AS THE UPPER 20S IN THE FAR WEST ZONES. WATER
VAPOR SHOWS THE MAIN UPPER LOW ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING AHEAD OF IT INTO THE NORTHWEST FORECAST
AREA. LATEST LOOK OUT THE WINDOW SHOWS CONVECTION BEING SQUELCHED
BY DRIER AIR MOVING IN FROM THE WEST.

FLOW ALOFT WILL BE WESTERLY TONIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN BECOME
NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A RIDGE/SUBSIDENCE
WILL BUILD INTO THE ROCKIES THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND A FRONT TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS ANOTHER FRONT THAT COMES
THROUGH ON TUESDAY.

MAIN CONSIDERATIONS FOR THIS FORECAST WILL BE POPS. THE SURFACE
TROUGH IS MOVING RAPIDLY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND WILL
NEED TO MONITOR ITS PROGRESS TO DETERMINE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. A
COLD FRONT WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH BUT INSTABILITY IS LACKING SO
WOULD EXPECT SHOWERS. A SHORTWAVE WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT SO
CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND
DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT. ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG THIS FRONT IN THE
AFTERNOON AND PROGRESS ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT. WIDESPREAD
DYNAMICS ARE INDICATED FOR THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE
MAIN UPPER LOW MOVES EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. GFS/NAM
FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LACK OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AM
TEMPTED TO LOWER POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE BUT THE SOUNDING IS PROBABLY
TOO DRY. FOR NOW WILL KEEP CHANCE POPS FOR THIS EVENT. DYNAMICS MOVE
AWAY BY 00Z THURSDAY SO WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS FROM WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

850MB TEMPERATURES ARE WARMEST ON TUESDAY AND THEN COOL 4 TO 5
DEGREES FOR WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. FOLLOWED MET GUIDANCE FOR MAX
TEMPERATURES AND MAV FOR LOW TEMPERATURES.

DAYS 4-7...A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES DURING THIS TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO NORTHWEST KANSAS ON SATURDAY
AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL FOCUS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY/SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE/SUBSIDENCE FOLLOWS ON MONDAY. MAX TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE
A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL ALSO
BE A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MDT MON MAY 8 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1145 AM CDT MON MAY 8 2006 /1045 AM MDT MON MAY 8 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE AREA...EAST OF A
HILL CITY TO GOVE KANSAS LINE. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME HEATING AND AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. ELSEWHERE IN THE TRI
STATE AREA...ISOLATED HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER DISTURBANCES
MOVE EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

LOCKHART/JDK

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