Severe Thunderstorm Warning 194, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
220 PM MDT WED AUG 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...17Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES H5 RIDGE AXIS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ALSO NOTED NEAR
KLBL AT 17Z LIFTING NORTH NORTHEAST. AT THE SFC...THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. OVERALL BOTH THE GFS AND THE NAM INITIALIZED FAIRLY WELL
THIS MORNING...THOUGH THE NAM WAS TO WEAK WITH TROUGH OVER IDAHO AND
GFS DID NOT PICK UP ON H5 CIRCULATION ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.

THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT...DIFFICULT FIND A LOT OF FEATURES TO FOCUS
ON FOR CONVECTION TONIGHT AS FLOW ALOFT VERY WEAK. PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHERN OKLAHOMA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE CWA. FOR THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THINK CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG FRONT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND ALONG TROUGH AXIS TO THE
EAST. STORM MOTIONS VERY SLOW...SO HEAVY RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE A
THREAT ONCE AGAIN. SLOW MOVEMENT AND WEAK FORCING MAY LIMIT OVERALL
COVERAGE AS WELL...BUT WILL WATCH AFTERNOON OBSERVATIONS BEFORE I
MAKE A FINAL CALL. OVERNIGHT H3 JET STREAK APPROACHES THE AREA
SPREADING WEAK DIVERGENCE ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE THIS HELP SET
OFF AN ISOLATED STORM IN AREA OF WEAK LOW LEVEL WAA.

TOMORROW/TOMORROW NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SLIDE ACROSS THE
MORNING AND BE SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE BY 18Z. MODELS SEEM
TO BE MOVING THE FRONT THROUGH VERY QUICKLY...BUT WITH UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST THINK THIS MAY BE A BIT TO QUICK. WITH FRONT
COMING ACROSS THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING WILL UP POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WILL LINGER POPS INTO THE EVENING...BUT CONFINE THEM THE
EXTREME SOUTHERN CWA.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THROUGH
THE DAY...LEADING TO LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE/DRYING ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA. BY SATURDAY...RIDGE SHIFTS TO THE EAST AS SHARP H5 TROUGH
BEGINS TO APPROACH THE AREA. SFC TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE
AFTERNOON PROVIDING THE FOCUS FOR MORE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. BEST
FORCING AND WEAKEST CAP ALL ACROSS THE WEST SO WILL LIMIT POPS TO
THIS AREA.

IN THE EXTENDED...PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL
BE IMPACT AND TIMING OF STRONG COLD FRONT DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS BEGINNING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH TIMING OF THE FRONT WHICH MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONSENSUS WOULD BE
FASTER THAN THE GFS...PROBABLY SLIDING ACROSS SUN AFTERNOON/EVENING.
FAIRLY CHILLY AIR IN PLACE BEHIND THE FRONT WITH H85 TEMPS DROPPING
10-15C BY MONDAY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS
TEMPS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN A FEW LOCATIONS. SHOULD SEE A
GRADUAL WARMUP EXPECTED AS H5 RIDGE REBUILDS OVER THE AREA.

BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON SUNDAY NIGHT WITH COLD
FRONT AND HAVE UPPED POPS IN THIS TIME FRAME. MODELS SUGGESTING
TROUGH TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS BY DAY 7 WITH CWA IN
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CONFIDENCE TO LOW AT THIS POINT TO ADD
POPS...BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

JRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
408 PM MDT WED AUG 09 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0353 PM     HAIL             5 NNW ATWOOD            39.88N 101.08W
08/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   PUBLIC

&&

BOYD