Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
138 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW ABUNDANT
MOISTURE OVER THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNLIKE LAST NIGHT...
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FROM A SHORT WAVE WILL BE LACKING. VERTICAL
MOTION TONIGHT WILL BE SUPPLIED BY WARM AIR ADVECTION AS WARM FRONT
RETREATS NORTH...ESPECIALLY FROM 00Z-06Z. MODELS ARE HAVING A
DIFFICULT TIME TRACKING THE FRONT...AND HANG IT SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA. WINDS HAVE SLOWLY BUT SURELY SWITCHED TO THE SOUTH
EVEN AS FAR NORTH AS GOODLAND. A NICE CONVERGENCE AXIS IS
APPARENT ON THE SURFACE FROM KAKO TO KCBK TO KGBD. EXPECT THIS
AXIS TO SHIFT A LITTLE FURTHER NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTION
SHOULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE AXIS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
THE EVENING. LATEST RADAR IMAGERY ALREADY SHOWS DEVELOPMENT IN THE
DODGE CITY AREA...AND EXPECT THESE STORMS TO ADVECT NORTHEAST. A
FEW STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DUE INSTABILITY AND DECENT
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN DUE
TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...NOTE 181% OF NORMAL AT KLBF
EARLIER THIS MORNING. WILL GO WITH ABOVE NORMAL POPS THIS
EVENING...AND THEN MENTION STRATUS/FOG LATE TONIGHT DUE TO HIGH
DEW POINTS AND WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS.

THERE WILL BE ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE WINDS TO
MENTION CONVECTION AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THEN TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM AND THE AIR MASS WILL DRY DURING THE REST OF THE WEEK AS 500
MB RIDGE STRENGTHENS. GFS BRINGS A WEAK SHORT WAVE THROUGH THE
RIDGE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME CONVECTION WITH THAT...BUT
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH TO MENTION IN THE FORECASTS NOW. A SLIGHTLY
MORE VIGOROUS WAVE IS PROGGED TO ARRIVE SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
AND INTRODUCED SOME LOW POPS IN THAT PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

MENTZER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1250 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-081300-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
150 PM CDT MON AUG 7 2006 /1250 PM MDT MON AUG 7 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE TRI STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK WARM FRONT SLOWLY LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG ROUGHLY A
SEIBERT COLORADO TO TRIBUNE LINE...BEFORE STORMS MOVE NORTH AND EAST
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP IN
THIS AREA AROUND 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT)...BEFORE SPREADING ACROSS THE
REST OF THE AREA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT DUE TO
LIMITED SURFACE HEATING NORTH OF THE FRONT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE LIMITED TO AREAS NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL
REMAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF A WAUNETA COLORADO TO NORTON LINE. LARGE
HAIL TO AROUND QUARTER SIZE...DAMAGING MICROBURST WINDS AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF
A LINE EXTENDING FROM FLAGLER AND CHEYENNE WELLS COLORADO TO GOVE
KANSAS TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 1 PM MDT (2 PM CDT).

JRM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
701 PM MDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0659 PM     HAIL             11 N ATWOOD             39.97N 101.04W
08/07/2006  M1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
708 PM MDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             11 N ATWOOD             39.97N 101.04W
08/07/2006  M1.00 INCH       RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            60 MPH TST WINDS

&&

BOYD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
709 PM MDT MON AUG 07 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     FLASH FLOOD      JENNINGS                39.68N 100.29W
08/07/2006                   DECATUR            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            2 INCH DEPTH WATER ACROSS HIGHWAY 383 BETWEEN JENNINGS
            AND CLAYTON.

&&

BOYD

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>