Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
224 PM MDT THU JUL 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CONCERNS INCLUDE CHANCES FOR CONVECTION
THIS EVENING THEN TEMPERATURES THROUGH REST OF THE FORECAST.
LATEST 19Z SURFACE MAP ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS
CENTRAL NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD.  LATEST
IR AND WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWED STRONG SHORTWAVE
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC
CIRCULATION OF STRONG UPPER RIDGE SEEN OVER WESTERN CONUS BUILDING
SLOWLY EAST WHILE BROAD TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.

THIS AFTERNOON LOWER DEWPOINTS WERE EVIDENT IN SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS SPREADING SLOWLY WEST TO EAST AND HAD MADE IT AS FAR
EAST AS GOODLAND BY EARLY AFTERNOON. BEST MOISTURE AND STRONG
INSTABILITY WAS PRESENT OVER EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF
FORECAST AREA.

FOR TONIGHT WILL KEEP CHANCE MENTION FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH SOME
SEVERE WORDING FOR EASTERN ZONES MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF
HITCHCOCK TO THOMAS TO WICHITA COUNTY LINE. WILL EXPECT THESE
STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD OUT OF FORECAST AREA BY OR BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF SILENT 10 POPS FOR REST OF FORECAST
AREA IN CASE ONE OR TWO STORMS DEVELOP HERE. AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT WILL GO CLOSE TO GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE
MIDDLE 60S.

FOR FRIDAY STRONG UPPER RIDGE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND A DRY ATMOSPHERE. WILL HAVE
LOTS OF SUNSHINE WITH HOT TEMPERATURES. 850 MB MODEL TEMPERATURES
INDICATE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S.

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WILL HAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD WITH A DRY
AND STABLE ATMOSPHERE. WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS IN
THE 100S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
60S.

THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH CONTINUED HOT TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S FOR
HIGHS WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LAMMERS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MDT THU JUL 13 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-141200-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1129 AM CDT THU JUL 13 2006 /1029 AM MDT THU JUL 13 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL QUICKLY DEVELOP AFTER 2 PM MDT (3 PM
CDT) ALONG A WELL DEFINED WIND SHIFT LINE AND INSTABILITY AXIS
EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY TRENTON NEBRASKA TO COLBY KANSAS TO LEOTI.
THE BROKEN LINE OF STORMS WITHIN THIS AXIS WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE TRI-STATE AREA BY 10 PM MDT (11 PM CDT).

DUE TO FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...SOME
STORMS IN NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA COULD
BECOME SEVERE. THE HIGHEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEOTI TO COLBY KANSAS TO MCCOOK
NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.
HOWEVER...A TORNADO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS ON THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

FOR SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE 100
DEGREES OR HIGHER FOR MUCH OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE COMBINATION
OF THE HEAT AND LIMITED CLOUD COVER WILL PROMOTE THE THREAT OF
DEHYDRATION FOR THOSE WORKING OR ENJOYING OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING.

IF YOU PLAN TO BE OUTSIDE...AVOID PROLONGED EXPOSURE OR STRENUOUS
PHYSICAL ACTIVITY. YOUR BODY CAN LOSE UP TO A GALLON OF WATER AN
HOUR THROUGH PERSPIRATION. DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS TO AVOID
DEHYDRATION. WEAR LIGHTWEIGHT...LIGHT COLORED...LOOSE FITTING
CLOTHING. WEAR A HAT TO SHIELD YOURSELF FROM THE SUN...AND USE A
SUNSCREEN TO REDUCE POSSIBLE SUNBURN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM LEOTI TO COLBY TO MCCOOK.

DDT/BULLER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
444 PM MDT THU JUL 13 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             3 SE CLAYTON            39.71N 100.14W
07/13/2006  E1.00 INCH       NORTON             KS   PUBLIC

&&

BLM

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