Severe Thunderstorm Warning 156, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
304 PM MDT TUE JUL 11 2006

.DISCUSSION...FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TOMORROW. HOT
TEMPERATURES FROM THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK ARE ALSO NOTEWORTY.

HAVE GONE WITH A GFS/NAM COMPROMISE...LEANING MORE TOWARDS THE
HIGHER POPS AND WARMER TEMPERATURES OF THE NAM IN THE SHORT TERM.

FORECAST THINKING IS SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY IN THAT A COUPLE WAVES
MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW COULD HELP INITIATE SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER
WEDNESDAY...THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES CONSIDERABLY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS
TO BUILD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO
THE LOWER HUNDREDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TRI-STATE REGION DURING
THE TIME...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED.
ALSO...OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY WELL INTO
THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE.

HAVE GONE DRY AGAIN FROM THURSDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

LOCKHART

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 11 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-121230-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1146 AM CDT TUE JUL 11 2006 /1046 AM MDT TUE JUL 11 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND WEST OF A WIND SHIFT LINE EXTENDING FROM ROUGHLY
YUMA COLORADO TO COLBY AND GOVE KANSAS. THE WIND PROFILE HAS
IMPROVED TODAY WITH SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT THE SURFACE BECOMING
NORTHWESTERLY IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP MAY ROTATE GIVEN THE BETTER WIND
SHEAR. A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN THE PRIMARY
THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE WEST. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE
PRIMARY THREAT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE AND COULD CREATE A
HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PICTURE BRINGING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
OR EXCEEDING 100 DEGREES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DDT/LAMMERS

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