Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
100 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

.DISCUSSION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A COLD FRONT MEANDERS ACROSS
THE AREA AND A SERIES OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS KEEP THE RIDGE FLAT
BRINGING A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TO THE TRI-STATE AREA.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL SAG SLOWLY SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON BISECTING THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY
LATE AFTERNOON. THIS BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z. A 40KT LLJ IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 03Z
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW DEEP MOIST CONVECTION TO CONTINUE NORTH OF THE
SFC BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASED POPS ALONG/NORTH
OF BOUNDARY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AND KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST ZONES AS
ACTIVITY DIMINISHES/MOVES EASTWARD. DUE TO SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND AN
INCREASE IN PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SOME
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE AND ADJUSTED QPF UP ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT.

THE DIFFUSE BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN STALLED ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS ON
SUNDAY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG/NORTH OF
BOUNDARY IN LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME. ONCE AGAIN 40+ KT LLJ IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE EVENING HOURS FAVORING THE NORTHERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. HIGH SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ZONES WITH READINGS AROUND 90...FURTHER SOUTH MID/UPPER 90S
ARE EXPECTED.

BY MONDAY...THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL SAG FURTHER SOUTH WITH
POST-FRONTAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
BRINGING COOLER TEMPERATURES. THIS SHOULD KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON. NO BIG CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS THINKING WITH
HIGHS AROUND 90 EXPECTED.

TUESDAY...LOW LEVEL EASTERLY UPSLOPE CONTINUES ACROSS THE TRI-STATE
AREA ON TUESDAY FAVORING THE WESTERN ZONES FOR DEEP MOIST
CONVECTION. HOWEVER...EXPANDED SLIGHT CHANCE MENTION FURTHER EAST
GIVEN WEAK ASCENT ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARY/MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S/AROUND 90.

DAYS 4 THROUGH 7(WED-SAT)...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES PLANNED
THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BUILDS EAST ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS ALLOWING A SLOW WARMING TREND AND LIMITED
CHANCES FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION. HIGHS AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD WILL BE IN THE 80S AND SLOWLY CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 90S
TOWARD THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

MCGUIRE

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
329 PM MDT SAT JUL 1 2006

KSZ002-003-NEZ080-081-012200-
DECATUR-HITCHCOCK-RAWLINS-RED WILLOW-
429 PM CDT SAT JUL 1 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR RAWLINS COUNTY IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...DECATUR COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST KANSAS...HITCHCOCK COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND RED
WILLOW COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA...

AT 425 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES NORTHWEST OF TRAER...OR 14 MILES SOUTH OF
MCCOOK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

JRM

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MDT SAT JUL 01 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     TORNADO          4 E ATWOOD              39.81N 100.97W
07/01/2006                   RAWLINS            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NON-SUPERCELLULAR TORNADO...ESTIMATED 10 MINUTE DURATION

0515 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 N BARTLEY             40.32N 100.31W
07/01/2006  E70.00 MPH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            60 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS

0525 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NE BARTLEY            40.30N 100.24W
07/01/2006  E70.00 MPH       RED WILLOW         NE   PUBLIC

            65 TO 70 MPH WIND GUSTS WITH PENNY SIZED HAIL

&&

SBLAIR