Red Flag Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 081841
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1241 PM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY...

.A VERY WARM AND DRY AIRMASS WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN COLORADO
TODAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE EAST.
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO LESS THAN 15 PERCENT AS
TEMPERATURES SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY...SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO
25 MPH WILL STILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

COZ252>254-090200-
/O.CON.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-060609T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
1241 PM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS
EVENING...

A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER ZONES INCLUDED IN THIS WARNING ARE:

252...253...254.

MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND VERY DRY AIR WILL COMBINE TO
DRIVE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DOWN TO 10 TO 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH EXPECTED ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONE 254. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO THE NORTH...BUT WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF VERY DRY
AIR...DRY FUELS AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PROVIDE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
YUMA COUNTY. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
RAINFALL BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR DRY LIGHTNING. STRONG AND
ERRATIC WINDS WILL ALSO BE COMMON NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR ARE IMMINENT. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND WARM TEMPERATURES WILL
CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

$$

JRM

000 
WWUS83 KGLD 090139
RFWGLD

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
739 PM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

COZ252>254-090245-
/O.EXP.KGLD.FW.W.0016.000000T0000Z-060609T0200Z/
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-
739 PM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING...

RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES WILL IMPROVE THIS EVENING AFTER SUNSET AS
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO COOL. WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST UP TO
40 MPH FOR A FEW MORE HOURS AS OUTFLOW FROM DISSIPATING THUNDERSTORMS
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
255 AM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

.DISCUSSION...MAIN CONCERNS FOR THIS FORECAST ARE TSRA CHANCES AND
FIRE WEATHER.

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE PLAINS DURING THIS FORECAST AND BREAK DOWN
ON FRIDAY. WEST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY. AT THE
SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND FROM SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED NORTH OF MCK ON FRIDAY.  A FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH FRIDAY
NIGHT AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH AND EAST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SATURDAY.

OTHER THAN SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA
THE WEATHER LOOKS QUIET TODAY DUE TO LACK OF ANY SHORTWAVE. HOWEVER
THE NAM INDICATES ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND AFFECTING THE NORTHWEST FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
ALSO SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT AND A LOW LEVEL JET PROVIDING ADDITIONAL
FORCING. PLAN TO INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS FOR THIS.
FRIDAY THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN SOME AND ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA STARTING IN THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON AND
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL
ALSO BE AT WORK BUT A LOW LEVEL JET APPEARS TO BE ABSENT. CURRENT
FORECAST ALREADY HAS THIS FACTORED IN AND LOOKS ON TRACK. ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS PROGGED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.
CURRENT GRIDS/FORECAST ALREADY CONTAIN THIS POSSIBILITY SO WILL
LEAVE AS IS.

850MB TEMPERATURES ARE AROUND 30 WHICH SHOULD TRANSLATE INTO MAX
TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE 90S. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT.
FOLLOWED MET FOR MAX TEMPERATURES AND MAV FOR LOWS.

FIRE WEATHER...THE ETA INDICATES THAT RH VALUES WILL FALL DOWN TO 15
PERCENT THURSDAY AROUND 21Z-03Z. HOWEVER WIND SPEEDS ARE BELOW THE
WIND CRITERIA SO FOR THAT REASON AM NOT LEANING FOR A RED FLAG
WARNING.

MADE NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...NONE.
&&

FS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
458 AM MDT THU JUN 8 2006

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-091415-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
558 AM CDT THU JUN 8 2006 /458 AM MDT THU JUN 8 2006/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...NORTHWEST KANSAS AND EAST CENTRAL COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF
THE TRI-STATE AREA. THE MAIN HAZARD WILL BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

THE RANGELAND FIRE DANGER INDEX FOR NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA IS EXTREME TODAY.

EXTREME FIRE DANGER MEANS...EVERY FIRE HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME LARGE.
NO OUTDOOR BURNING SHOULD TAKE PLACE IN AREAS WITH EXTREME FIRE DANGER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
TRI=STATE AREA FROM FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE
MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS SHOULD BE DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FS