Flash Flood Watch 2, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 AM MDT SUN JUL 9 2006

.DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO BE POPS AND
QPFS FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE WRF AND GFS ALSO CONTINUE TO BE AT
ODDS. GFS BRINGS HIGH POPS/SIGNIFICANT QPFS TO THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON WHILE THE WRF IS MUCH DRIER. BY TONIGHT...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BE OUT-OF-PHASE WITH THE GFS BEING DRIER WHILE
THE WRF IS MUCH WETTER. SO...CHOOSING THE BEST MODEL WILL BE
CRITICAL. UNFORTUNATELY...NEITHER MODEL MAY PERFORM PARTICULARLY
WELL GIVEN SUBTLE FEATURES AND RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ALOFT.

WRF MODEL IS UNDER DOING THE STRENGTH OF SURFACE HIGH ACROSS
COLORADO...POSSIBLY A FUNCTION OF MODEL TERRAIN. GFS AND EVEN OLD
NGM ARE MUCH BETTER WITH THE SURFACE. EXTRAPOLATING THE MODEL
ERRORS THROUGH TIME MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE TONIGHT WITH WRF
SHOWING DECENT SURFACE UPSLOPE FLOW. GFS SHOWS SLIGHTLY DOWNSLOPE.
PREFER THE GFS SURFACE FEATURES DUE TO BETTER INITIALIZATION.

THE TWO MODELS ARE ALSO DIFFERENT WITH MID LEVEL FEATURES. GFS HAS
THE RIGHT IDEA WITH WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...BUT
LOOKS TOO STRONG GIVEN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. DIFFERENCES BECOME
ESPECIALLY APPARENT THIS EVENING WITH POSITION AND STRENGTH OF FIRST
WAVE. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...A SECOND WAVE IS HANDLED QUITE DIFFERENTLY
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. WRF MUCH MORE BULLISH/WET WITH FEATURE
WHILE GFS IS WEAKER AND DRY. SLIGHTLY PREFER THE GFS HERE
ALSO...BUT WITH SOME MODIFICATIONS. ANALYSIS THIS EVENING SHOWS A
DECENT 500-300 MB SHORT WAVE ACROSS UTAH/ARIZONA. THIS WAVE SHOULD
RIDE ACROSS THE RIDGE TODAY AND MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...
JUST DO NOT SEE IT AS STRONG AS THE WRF DEPICTS. SECONDLY...THE
SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION CONTINUES...AND DO NOT SEE THAT CHANGING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS. FINALLY...CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO WHICH SUPPORTS A MORE MOIST SOLUTION.

BOTTOM LINE IS THIS...WILL ACCEPT THE GFS BUT WILL MAKE FORECASTS
REFLECT A SLIGHTLY DRIER TREND TODAY AND A SLIGHTLY WETTER TREND
TONIGHT. PARTS OF CHEYENNE COUNTY COLORADO HAVE RECEIVED TWO TO
THREE INCHES THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS. PER COORDINATION WITH
DDC/PUB...WILL HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH THERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT DUE CONTINUED CONVECTION AND DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER.

MODEL DIFFERENCES CONTINUE INTO MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT AS DECENT
SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE ON THE FAR SOUTH END OF TROUGH...ENOUGH TO KEEP MENTION OF
SCATTERED PRECIPITATION. THE AIR MASS WILL FINALLY DRY TUESDAY...AND
THEN EXPECT 500 MB RIDGE TO BUILD FOR MUCH WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER
THE REST OF THE WEEK. ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO THE CURRENT
EXTENDED PERIOD FORECASTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
NE...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
     COZ092.

&&

MENTZER

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