Winter Storm Warning 9, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
405 AM MDT WED APR 5 2006

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)...TOUGH SELL JOB IF
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS HOLD UNTIL SUNRISE AND MAKING PEOPLE BELIEVE
IT WILL BE ANOTHER FINE SPRING DAY.  SORRY...CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY
DETERIORATE TODAY AS THE SURFACE FRONT IS ON THE MOVE ACROSS ERN
NEVADA AT 09Z.  CURRENT TREND SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE
WASATCH AT AROUND NOON...THEN REACH THE WRN COLORADO BORDER LATE
AFTERNOON...AND FINALLY CROSSES THE NRN DIVIDE BY MID EVENING.
THE FRONT HAS STRONG UPPER AIR SUPPORT AND PRONOUNCED COLD ADVECTION
BEHIND THE FRONT.  WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF STRONG UPWARDS FORCING
NEAR THE NEVADA AND UTAH BORDER...CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS
MORNING AND SHOULD BECOME MOSTLY CLOUDY.  SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE
OF THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN SNOW INCREASING OVER THE SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON WITH WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS BEGINNING AT
NOON.  BUT FOR THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...MOST OF THE SNOW WILL
WAIT UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES.  HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR FOR A
2-3 HOURS WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT SNOWFALL WILL DECREASE IN
INTENSITY TOWARD MIDNIGHT.  THIS WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS MODELS SHOW
SIGNIFICANT WRAP AROUND MOISTURE IN NORTHWEST FLOW COVERING THE NRN
2/3RDS OF WRN COLORADO.  AFTER THE BRIEF LULL...EXPECT SNOW TO
INCREASE DURING THE DAY OVER THE NRN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL
AS THE NWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS.  THE EXTENDED DURATION OF STEADY
SNOW...AND H7 COLD ADVECTION LASTING INTO THURSDAY EVENING...WILL
RESULT IN TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS EXCEEDING WARNING CRITERIA.  WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE...HAVE GONE AHEAD AND UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH
TO A WARNING THIS FORECAST PACKAGE.  ALSO UPGRADED THE NWRN SAN JUAN
MOUNTAINS AS THE WRAPAROUND MOISTURE WILL IMPACT THE TELLURIDE
VICINITY AND THE UNCOMPAHGRE GORGE.  FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS...SNOW
LEVELS WILL LOWER TO MANY VALLEY FLOORS ABOVE 5500 FEET.  WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF CRAIG...MEEKER...AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS...ONLY WET
SNOW EXPECTED WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS.  GRADIENT FLOW RELAXES
THURSDAY EVENING AND THIS WILL BRING AN END TO THE RAIN AND
SNOW...EXCEPT FOR AREAS NEAR THE NRN DIVIDE.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER ERN UTAH FRIDAY. THIS WILL PROVIDE A NW FLOW
ALOFT AND COMBINED WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MSTR WILL LEAD TO A FEW
SHWRS OVER THE NRN MTNS ALONG THE DIVIDE. THE RIDGE AXIS THEN
QUICKLY SHIFTS EWRD OF OUR CWA FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
THEN BACK TO THE SW IN A WARM AIR ADVECTIVE PATTERN IN ADVANCE OF
THE NEXT EVOLVING LOW APPROACHING THE PAC NW. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
WX SATURDAY WITH MAIN STROM ENERGY WELL TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT
TEMPS WILL REBOUND NICELY. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL DIG
INTO CA WITH THE GRADIENT FLOW TIGHTENING ACROSS OUR CWA. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OVER THE UINTAS WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION
EXTENDING EWRD TO THE GRAND MESA. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL MOVE INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY EARLY MON WITH THE CHANCE FOR PCPN
INCREASING THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. HOWEVER CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW AND WILL NOT JUMP ON HIGHER POPS FOR THIS PACKAGE. GFS TIMING
BRINGS THE TROUGH AXIS OVERHEAD MON NIGHT WITH A SHORT PERIOD OF
ZONAL FLOW AS THE NEXT WAVE QUICKLY MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN.
WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN ON FRI AND PEAK ON SAT WILL TEMPS ABOVE
AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. TEMPS WILL COOL A LITTLE BY
SUN...BUT REMAIN NORMAL OR A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE NWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS NOON
       WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING (ZONE 19).
      WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE SAWATCH...WEST ELK...ELK...PARK...
       GORE...ELK HEAD...FLATTOPS...THE GRAND AND BATTLEMENT MESAS
       WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING (ZONES 4...9...
       10...12 AND 13).
      SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
       NOON THURSDAY FOR THE SWRN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS (ZONE19).
.UT...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY FROM NOON WEDNESDAY THROUGH
       NOON THURSDAY FOR THE EASTERN UINTA MOUNTAINS (ZONE 23).

&&

PF/EH/MC

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