Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Grand Junction, CO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
303 PM MDT TUE AUG 22 2006

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
ROTATION AROUND HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SW TEXAS CONTROLS THE
FLOW OVER SAN JUAN MTS...FOUR CORNERS AND SE UTAH. STORMS THERE WILL
CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THEN TRAVEL AND
PROPAGATE TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST COLORADO
AND NORTHEAST UTAH STORM MOTION IS INFLUENCES BY SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD
OF A TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A SHEAR ZONE BETWEEN THESE
TWO FLOW REGIMES THAT LIES JUST SOUTH OF GJT. A SMALL VORT MAX IS
ALSO EVIDENT ON SATELLITE MOVING NORTH OVER WESTERN NM. BELIEVE THIS
FEATURE WILL WEAKEN BEFORE REACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AS IT APPEARS
TO BECOME LESS ORGANIZED WITH TIME ON SATELLITE. BUT OUTFLOWS FROM
ITS CONVECTION WILL HELP STORMS FIRE OVER THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE
CO/UT FOUR CORNER THROUGH THIS EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS AND
CLOUDS A BIT FOR TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

FOR WED THROUGH THU...THE DRIER WESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES AND PACNW BECOMES MORE DOMINENT OVER THE CWA AND FORCES THE
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA FURTHER TO
THE SOUTH AND EAST. HAVE KEPT THE TREND OF DECREASING POPS THROUGH
THRU THE PERIOD.

.LONG-TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...LATEST GFS TRENDING A
LITTLE WETTER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS. THIS IS BECAUSE THE WESTERLIES
NEVER BECOME AS DEVELOPED SINCE THE PACIFIC TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
WEST COAST. THIS KEEPS SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

EARLY IN THE PERIOD...MODELS SHOW A DISTURBANCE MOVING AROUND THE
HIGH AND OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON FRI. SO HAVE UPPED POPS STARTING
DOWN SOUTH THU NIGHT. THEN ON FRI WENT CHANCE POPS MOUNTAINS AND
SOUTH...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE ELSEWHERE. THIS IS UP A CATEGORY OR SO
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THEN THROUGH THE NEXT COUPLE OF PERIODS
HAVE STILL INCREASED THE POPS A LITTLE...BUT TRENDED THEM MORE
TOWARDS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. THIS KEEPS MOST ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH.
IF THE WETTER MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE...POPS WILL NEED INCREASED
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER WILL WAIT FOR A COUPLE MORE
RUNS BEFORE JUMPING ON THE JUICIER FORECAST. DECREASED TEMPS JUST A
TAD...MAINLY THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS. THIS ACCOUNTS FOR MORE
CLOUDS/PCPN. OTHERWISE HAVE LEFT WHAT WAS THERE...WHICH WAS NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.CO...NONE.
.UT...NONE.

&&

CJC/EH

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>