Winter Storm Warning 3, NWS Hastings, NE

Jewell County, KS, Osborne County, KS, Phillips County, KS, Rooks County, KS, Smith County, KS, Adams County, NE, Buffalo County, NE, Dawson County, NE, Fillmore County, NE, Franklin County, NE, Furnas County, NE, Gosper County, NE, Greeley County, NE, Hall County, NE, Harlan County, NE, Howard County, NE, Kearney County, NE, Nuckolls County, NE, Phelps County, NE, Polk County, NE, Sherman County, NE, Valley County, NE, Webster County, NE, York County, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
534 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...INCREDIBLY COMPLICATED FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST.
BECAUSE OF TIME CONSTRAINTS THIS AFD WILL BE KEPT SHORT AND TO THE
POINT.

INCREDIBLY WOUND UP UPPER LOW IS STILL JUST TRYING TO EMERGE OUT
OF THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS GIVES PLENTY OF TIME FOR THE
FORECAST TO GO WRONG AND THERE IS PLENTY THAT CAN GO WRONG.
BASICALLY DID THE BEST I COULD WITH SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND
RELIED A LOT ON PERSISTENCE DUE TO THE FACT THAT OUR AIRMASS AT
THE SURFACE WILL NOT CHANGE A WHOLE LOT IN THE NEAR FUTURE AS THIS
LOW TAKES ITS TIME TO MOVE.

PROBLEMS THIS MORNING DEAL WITH LIGHT PRECIP AND TEMPERATURES
CLOSE TO FREEZING AT THE SURFACE...MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CWA.
THEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON...MUCH OF OUR WARM LAYER GOES AWAY AND
WE CHANGE TO SNOW FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CWA INTO THE EVENING.
THEN ANOTHER SHOT OF WARM AIR ALOFT WORKS IN LATE TONIGHT AND
HELPS CONVERT MUCH OF THE PRECIP BACK TO FREEZING RAIN. SATURDAY
COULD BE MAINLY RAIN...BUT OUR WEST CWA STILL REMAINS TROUBLESOME
WITH WARM LAYERS STUBBORNLY PROGGED TO BE JUST BELOW ZERO. ONE
PROBLEM IS THAT THE WARM LAYER DOES NOT SEEM TO BE ABLE TO STAY AT
ONE LEVEL...SO IT IS DIFFICULT TO TRACK ON PLAN VIEW. IT LANDS
ANYWHERE FROM 800 TO 900 MB AND AT SMALL INCREMENTS IN BETWEEN.
I THINK THE GFS IS TOO COLD FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE WARM
LAYER...AND SEEMS TO CLEARLY SHOW ITS WARM BIAS AND PREFERRED THE
NAM WRF WARM LAYER DEPICTIONS.

THAT BEING SAID...SATURDAY EVENING COULD BE OUR MOST DIFFICULT
TIME HERE. THIS IS WHEN A GOOD SLUG OF MOISTURE AND FRONTOGENETIC
FORCING COMES IN AND THE WESTERN THIRD OF OUR CWA SEEMS TO LOSE
ALL SENSE OF A WARM LAYER ABOVE ZERO CELSIUS. EVEN THE ECMWF SHOWS
THE ZERO LINE AT 850 MB SLICED OVER THE CWA TO ALLOW THE WESTERN
PART OF THE CWA TO GET SNOW ON SATURDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE
EXPECTED WIND...THIS COULD BE TROUBLESOME. I KEPT A WATCH
GOING...MAINLY BECAUSE I AM WORRIED ABOUT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE
WEST. WE COULD PICK UP SNOW VERY QUICKLY AND THE WIND COULD MAKE
THINGS EVEN MORE HAZARDOUS. FOR CONTINUITY...I DECIDED TO ADD 4
COUNTIES TO BEST MATCH UP WITH THE WATCH FROM NORTH PLATTE...AND
THESE ADDITIONAL COUNTIES COULD EASILY BE IN THE LINE OF FIRE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW AND WIND. THIS SEEMED TO BE THE BEST OPTION TO
KEEP THINGS FROM APPEARING DISJOINTED. ALSO...TO AVOID
CONFUSION...THE THE GROUP HERE DECIDED NOT TO DROP THE EARLIER
PART OF THE WATCH ON FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY DUE TO THE FACT WE
HAVE A MIXED BAG OF PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST IN THE FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. SO WE NOW HAVE A WATCH FROM FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH THE THOUGH THAT SATURDAY NIGHT
COULD GIVE US THE MOST TROUBLE.

DIFFICULT FORECAST AND A LOT MAY CHANGE BETWEEN NOW AND THE NEXT
FORECAST. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE MOST SNOW TOTALS IN THE FAR WEST
CWA...TOPPING OUT AT UP TO 8 INCHES FOR WESTERN DAWSON IN OUR
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNT GRIDS.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR NEZ039-046-060-061-072-073-082-083.

KS...NONE.
&&

HEINLEIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
553 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

KSZ005-017-NEZ039>041-046>048-060>062-072>075-082>085-301200-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-DAWSON-
BUFFALO-HALL-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-
553 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WEST
OF A LINE FROM CENTRAL CITY TO GRAND ISLAND TO RED CLOUD...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...MAINLY NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM HOLDREGE TO KEARNEY TO FULLERTON.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. ANY SLEET OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
LIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY IN THE
MORNING.

SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF
HIGHWAY 281. SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF KEARNEY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT DUE TO POSSIBLE
FREEZING RAIN OR SLEET.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ006-007-018-019-NEZ049-063-064-076-077-086-087-301200-
SMITH-JEWELL-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-POLK-HAMILTON-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-
NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
553 AM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EAST OF
A LINE FROM CENTRAL CITY TO GRAND ISLAND TO RED CLOUD...AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS MAINLY EAST OF HIGHWAY 281.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF GENEVA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

HEINLEIN