Severe Thunderstorm Warning 97, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
359 AM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

.DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THIS EARLY MORNING REVEALS AN
UPPER RIDGE SITTING OVER THE PLAINS WHILE FURTHER WEST A DEEP
CYCLONE IS SEEN DIGGING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  SEVERAL SMALLER
WAVES CAN BE SEEN EMBEDDED IN THE UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS WITH ONE OF THESE WAVES SEEN SLIDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
PLAINS. CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NEARLY STALLED FRONT
SITTING OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS AND NORTHERN OK.  THE BETTER SURFACE
MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...HOWEVER INCREASING
THETA E ADVECTION SHOWN IN THE RUC ANALYSIS DATA NEAR THE 850MB
LAYER IS ALLOWING AN AREA OF CONVECTION TO SUSTAIN WELL NORTH OF THE
SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO SOUTHWEST NEB AND NORTHWEST KS.  THIS THETA E
ADVECTION SIGNAL IN THE RUC AND OTHER MODELS SLOWLY PUSHES EAST
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS AND ANTICIPATE THE HIGH PLAINS CONVECTION
TO SLIDE EAST THROUGH THE AREA AS WELL.  BASED ON THIS...WILL ADD A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INITIALLY SOUTHWEST OF A LEXINGTON
TO OSBORNE LINE BUT THEN EXPANDING INTO AREAS NEAR THE TRI CITIES
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

AS THE REGION HEADS INTO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THE PAC NORTHWEST
UPPER CYCLONE MENTIONED ABOVE WILL MOVE INLAND BY LATE AFTERNOON
WHILE DOWNSTREAM THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE MS RIVER
VALLEY.  THIS WILL ALLOW THE LEE TROUGH TO CONTINUALLY DEEPEN IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING WESTERLIES.  THIS WILL TRIGGER THE FRONT
OVER SOUTHERN KANSAS TO BEGIN SHIFTING BACK NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS WITH LOWER TO MID 60 DEGREE SURFACE DEWPOINTS SURGING BACK
NORTH INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AS WELL. AS
CAN BE EXPECTED IN LATE MAY...THIS WILL BRING SOME DECENT CAPE
VALUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH VALUES LIKELY IN THE 2000-2500 J/KG
RANGE.  APPEARS AS THOUGH FORCING ALONG THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH AND THE CAP WEAK ENOUGH TO ALLOW AT LEAST SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP INITIALLY NEAR THE KS...NEB BORDER BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT ANY CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP TO THEN
EXPAND EAST AND NORTHEAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  APPEARS TO BE
ANOTHER LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND POSSIBILITY AS WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR AND A HIGH LCL SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY TORNADO THREAT.  IN
ADDITION...ANY CONVECTION FIRING FURTHER WEST OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
MAY SHIFT EAST INTO THE AREA AFTER DARK TONIGHT.

HOT AND DRY PATTERN THEN TAKES OVER FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST REGION WHILE THE RIDGE
IS AMPLIFIED OVER THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE CENTRAL
PLAINS UNDER A VERY HOT SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME ALOFT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES IN THE 12 TO 15 C RANGE.  IN ADDITION...THIS WILL
EFFECTIVELY CAP OFF THE FORECAST AREA AS THE BETTER FORCING WILL BE
OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND CLOSER TO THE LEE TROUGH OVER THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WITH DENSER CIRRUS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSER
TO THE UPPER JET STREAK OVER THE ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...THE AREA LOOKS TO BE HEADED FOR A RECORD BREAKING HIGH
TEMPERATURES BOTH DAYS.  WILL AIM HIGHS FROM THE MID 90S NEAR
CENTRAL CITY TO AROUND 100 NEAR STOCKTON.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>048-060>063-072>076-082>086-
271200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-GOSPER-PHELPS-
KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NORTH OF A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD RAPIDLY BECOME SEVERE...AND HAVE THE POTENTIAL
TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF
60 MPH. ADDITIONALLY...BEAR IN MIND THAT DEADLY LIGHTNING IS
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

ISOLATED TORNADO DEVELOPMENT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BELOIT TO SMITH CENTER AND
LEXINGTON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ049-064-077-087-271200-
POLK-YORK-FILLMORE-THAYER-
625 PM CDT FRI MAY 26 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG
AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 14.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...AS
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS AS THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE OUTLOOK AREA STARTING
SUNDAY NIGHT...LASTING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

06

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