Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
525 AM CST SUN MAR 12 2006

.UPDATE...ADDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING ONE COUNTY WEST INTO
OSBORNE AND SMITH COUNTIES. ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE VERY CLOSE
TO THE CWFA...AND MAY BE JUST A HAIR FURTHER WEST. COVERAGE STILL
PRETTY LIMITED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...SURFACE LOW FINALLY LIKELY TO EMERGE ON THE FRONT
RANGE AS PRESSURE FALLS INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AT 10Z.
STRONG UPPER SYSTEM ON THE MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES. CWFA
TEMPERATURES AT 4 AM RANGE FROM THE MIDDLE 30S TO LOWER 40S.

QUITE COMPLEX FORECAST FOR THE CWFA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE MAIN
ISSUES ARISE FROM CLEARING IN SOUTHERN ZONES TODAY RESULTING IN
A SHARP TEMPERATURES GRADIENT ACROSS THE CWFA...AND WHETHER
PRECIPITATION WILL REALLY AMOUNT TO MUCH AT ALL.

SOME PRETTY IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION SEEN ON THE PROFILERS OF
WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA EARLY THIS MORNING. H85 MOISTURE SURGE
FINALLY WORKING INTO EASTERN KANSAS WITH LOWER CLOUDS DEVELOPING
BUT DEEPER MOISTURE DOWN TO THE SURFACE SLOWING WORKING THROUGH
OKLAHOMA. MID CLOUDS OVERNIGHT HAVE PRETTY MUCH COVERED THE REGION
AND CLOUDS WILL BE THE CASE FOR THE MORNING FOR MOST OF THE AREA.
MODELS DEPICT WARM ADVECTION LIFT ALONG WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LIFT
WILL TAP INTO MOISTURE...AND WE NOW HAVE ISOLATED CELLS NEAR
WICHITA. GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS POSSIBILITY EXISTS OVER THE
EASTERN CWFA AND HAVE CONTINUED THAT RISK. POCKET OF ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DEPICTED NICELY ON THE NAM AND GENERALLY IMPACTS
SOUTHEAST CWFA PRIMARILY. THIS SEEM TO FIT THE LEADING AREA
OF SURGING MOISTURE.

THIS ALSO FITS ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SURFACE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS BY LATE MORNING. RUC/NAM BOTH
SHOW THIS LIFTING SAY CLOSE TO HIGHWAY 6 IN SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.
06Z NAM FURTHER NORTH. HOWEVER 06Z GFS NOT AT FAR NORTH. THIS
IS THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES TO THE
SOUTH OF BOUNDARY COULD SOAR...ESPECIALLY ONCE DRY LINE RIFLES
EAST BY MIDDAY ACROSS KANSAS. TO THE NORTH...ONLY LIMITED RISE
IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY WITH CLOUDS...EAST WINDS...AND SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. TRIED TO SHARPEN THINGS UP ON
THE TEMPERATURE/CLOUD COVER SIDE TODAY...WITH NEARLY A 30
DEGREE RANGE IN TEMPERATURES LIKELY FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. RIGHT
NOW...ANTICIPATE AT LEAST SOME LEVEL OF CLEARING AS FAR NORTH
AS THE FIRST TIER OF NEBRASKA COUNTIES. ONE OTHER ISSUE WHICH
COULD ARISE IS SOME WIND ISSUES IN THE FAR SOUTHERN CWFA BEHIND
THE DRY-LINE. SOUTHWEST WINDS AT H85 OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS LIKELY TO
MIX DOWN WITH SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL MOMENTUM TRANSFER. HAVE
INCREASED WINDS IN THOSE AREAS TO 20 TO 30 MPH...BUT NEAR
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS POSSIBLE.

UPPER WAVE TRACK IS NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
OVER MOST OF THE CWFA. CONSENSUS IS THINGS WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH
ALTHOUGH THE LATEST UKMET IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. OTHER CONSENSUS
IS THE DRY AIR WILL RAPIDLY SURGE EAST...EFFECTLY CUTTING MOISTURE
TO THE SOUTH...AND LEAVING A NARROW AXIS OF MOISTURE AVAILABILITY
FROM THE EAST. WHILE MAIN FRONTOGENETIC FORCING IS CLEARLY NORTH
OF THE CWFA...MODELS ATTEMPT TO PUMP SOME PRECIPITATION ALONG THE
COLD FRONTAL SURGE THIS EVENING. GFS LOOKS WAY OVERDONE...AS FRONT
PLOWS INTO VERY DRY AIR MASS OVER SOUTHERN CWFA. HIGH BASED SHOWERS
SEEMS MOST PLAUSIBLE. TO THE NORTH...A MIXTURE OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL
OCCUR...AND EVENTUALLY SPILL SOME FROZEN PRECIPITATION FURTHERR
SOUTH BEHIND THE FRONT. AGREE WITH PREVIOUS GID FORECASTER AND
WWD...WITH MAYBE AN INCH OR SO THE FAR NORTHERN ZONES POSSIBLE.
LOOKS LIKE WE ESCAPE SIGNIFICANT SNOW.

BACKED OFF PRECIPITATION TO FLURRIES MONDAY AND KEPT THE NOON TIME
CUTOFF. MAIN ISSUE MONDAY IS CHILLY TEMPERATURES AND BRISK WINDS.

FEW...IF ANY...CHANGES THEREAFTER.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

05

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