Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
356 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WITH THIS FORECAST WILL
BE TIMING AND VALUES OF POPS.

INITIAL CONVECTION LOOKS LIKE IT CAN OCCUR MORE EASILY IN OUR KS
COUNTIES AS THEY HAVE HAD THE BEST INSOLATION ALONG WITH HIGHER
DEWPOINTS. LAPS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION MAY START AT
AROUND 4 OR 5 PM. THETA E RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA. ALTHOUGH
SHORTWAVE COMING THROUGH IS ON THE SUBTLE SIDE...AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE OF
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHOULD HELP
ENCOURAGE DEVELOPMENT AND I ACTUALLY WENT HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE
VALUES AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN CWA.
DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT I BELIEVE LOWER LEVELS WILL
GENERALLY BE TOO DRY TO ALLOW MUCH PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AT ALL SO
I TOOK OUT POPS MUCH QUICKER AND KEPT THEM OUT ON TUESDAY.

FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THERE SEEMS TO BE ANOTHER QUICK SHOT AT PRECIP
FOCUSED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ANOTHER MORE IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE THAN
TODAY WILL MOVE THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON TO GIVE THE CWA
ANOTHER CHANCE AT PRECIPITATION WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT TO
HELP WITH NICE STEEP LAPSE RATES WED AFT AND EVENING. MODELS ARE
NOT DOING ALL THAT GREAT WITH TIMING AND PLACEMENT AGREEMENT AND
DECIDED UPON WHAT LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TIMING AND PLACEMENT...NOT
REALLY COMPLETELY BUYING INTO ANY ONE MODEL SOLUTION.

.LONG TERM...12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY. CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED
INCLUDE SMALL PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVER THE WEEKEND ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION ON THURSDAY...WITH WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS. IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS UPPER FLOW DIRECTION IN
COMBINATION WITH NORTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AROUND A SURFACE RIDGE
STRETCHING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL KEEP TEMPS BELOW
AVERAGE ON THURSDAY...WITH MAXES EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. AS THE SURFACE RIDGE SLIDES SOUTHEAST ON
FRIDAY...SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS RETURN TO THE AREA...WITH
RESULTANT WEAK WAA HELPING TO BOOST TEMPS BACK TO AVERAGE OR JUST
BELOW.

A SURFACE FRONT IS PROGGED TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE CWFA ON
SATURDAY. IT LOOKS LIKE MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING FOR ANY CONVECTION
TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASES
SATURDAY NIGHT AND UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS AT LOW LEVELS. THIS UPSLOPE
COMPONENT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT IS MAINTAINED INTO SUNDAY...AND HAVE
INSERTED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
PERIOD. AFTER REBOUNDING INTO THE LOWER TO MID 70S AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ON SATURDAY...TEMPS LOOK TO COOL BACK TO A COUPLE DEGREES
BELOW AVERAGE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW PERSISTS
AND THERE LOOKS TO BE A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUDS AROUND.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HEINLEIN/BUFFALO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

NEZ039>041-046>049-061>064-074>077-091100-
VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-BUFFALO-HALL-
HAMILTON-YORK-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-
514 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS EXPECTED TO BE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ082>087-091100-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
514 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS EXPECTED TO
BE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

NEZ060-072-073-091100-
DAWSON-GOSPER-PHELPS-
514 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH THE MAIN THREATS EXPECTED TO BE
HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY EVENING...AND AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

WESELY/EWALD

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
509 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

KSZ005-017-082245-
PHILLIPS-ROOKS-
509 PM CDT MON MAY 8 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR PHILLIPS AND ROOKS COUNTIES...

AT 505 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF EDMOND...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
HILL CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...
  LOGAN...

PEOPLE IN NORTHWESTERN ROOKS AND SOUTHWESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTIES...
SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER SITUATION CLOSELY. A WARNING MAY BE NEEDED
IF THE STORM MOVES INTO THE AREA. BE READY TO SEEK SHELTER IF SEVERE
WEATHER THREATENS.

WESELY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
537 PM CDT MON MAY 08 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             11 W STOCKTON           39.44N 99.48W
05/08/2006  E0.88 INCH       ROOKS              KS   PUBLIC

&&

EWALD