Severe Thunderstorm Warning 206, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
221 PM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

.SHORT TERM...LOTS AND LOTS OF ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM...INCLUDING
FLOOD CONCERNS AND POSSIBLY SOME SEVERE WEATHER.

SYNOPSIS OF CURRENT CONDITIONS HAS LEADING EDGE OF SURFACE FRONT
BEGINNING TO SLOW...BUT STILL PREVALENT  FROM ORD/ALBION TO NEAR
MCCOOK. THE NORTHERN EDGE IS DRIVEN BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW FROM
NEARBY STORMS. ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS UNSTABLE...BUT
CAPPED. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND MORE STORMS IN SOUTHEAST CWFA HAS
TAKEN HOLD THERE. CAP IS WEAKEST IN SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOISTURE
IS PLENTIFUL...WITH KOAX PART OF A 5C+ RIBBON OF H700 MOISTURE
ON THIS MORNINGS SOUNDING. FINALLY...NOW SEE SOME FRONTAL
DEVELOPMENT IN CUSTER COUNTY...AND MAY HAVE TO INCREASE POPS
SLIGHT NORTHWEST ZONES THIS EVENING.

UNCERTAINTY IS STILL PRETTY HIGH IN THIS FORECAST...DESPITE THE
NEAR TERM IMPLICATIONS. HAVE EXTENDED FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO 12Z
SATURDAY FOR THE WHOLE AREA. FEEL THE NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS
COUNTIES HAVE BEST SHOT AT FLOODING PROBLEMS...BUT NEBRASKA
COUNTIES ARE CLOSE. QUICK INCH OF RAIN AND WE HAVE PROBLEMS.
RATHER THAN SPLIT THE WATCH UP...HAVE ELECTED TO EXTEND...
CONVEY SOME UNCERTAINTY...AND CANCEL UNNEEDED AREAS LATER.
HAVE KEPT THE RAIN RISK WELL INTO SATURDAY MORNING SOUTH...
AS THE PREVIOUS FORECAST DEPICTED. EXPECT CLOUDS TO LINGER
FOR A LARGE PART OF THE CWFA ON SATURDAY...WITH SOME AREAS
SEEING SUN ONLY TOWARD EVENING.

.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE
REALLY ONLY REVOLVES AROUND TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST 4-CORNERS AREA WILL INDUCE A DRY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT OVER THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH
OVER THE 4-CORNERS AREA WILL SHIFT WESTWARD INTO EAST CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA. BASED ON THIS WESTWARD SHIFT...OUR FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MORE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE EFFECT ON
OVERALL SENSIBLE WEATHER WITH ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY ON TAP.

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
AS AN UPPER TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF NORTH DAKOTA. THIS TROUGH
WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST IOWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE TROUGH WILL DRAG THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY
BRINGING A LITTLE BIT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION BUT NO PRECIP.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL ON FRIDAY AS WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS ALOFT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR NEZ064-NEZ076-NEZ077-
     NEZ085-NEZ086-NEZ087.

KS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR KSZ006-KSZ007-KSZ017-
     KSZ018-KSZ019.

&&

05/JAR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1126 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

KSZ006-007-017>019-NEZ064-076-077-085>087-191200-
SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-YORK-CLAY-FILLMORE-WEBSTER-
NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1126 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OF A YORK NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATER TODAY
ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. AN ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...FLASH FLOODING AND
FLOODING IN GENERAL WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT HAZARD WITH SUCH
SATURATED GROUND CONDITIONS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING FROM
NEAR THE KANSAS AND NEBRASKA BORDER INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS. NO
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT. SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS AS WELL.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KSZ005-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>063-072>075-082>084-191200-
PHILLIPS-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-
BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-FURNAS-HARLAN-
FRANKLIN-
1126 AM CDT FRI AUG 18 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS...MAINLY
NORTHWEST OF A YORK NEBRASKA...TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT SLIDING SOUTH INTO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...IS LIKELY TO TRIGGER SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.
A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...WITH QUARTER
SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS THE MAIN HAZARDS. THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN ON A SPORADIC BASIS...AND
SOME AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS SATURDAY MORNING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
IN THE EARLY EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

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