Severe Thunderstorm Warning 182, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
156 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

.SHORT TERM...MAIN PROBLEM IN THE NEAR TERM IS RAIN CHANCES
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED
A STATIONARY FRONT JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS
FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BE THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AS
SHORTWAVES RIDE ACROSS THE AREA. IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE AREA HAS A
GOOD CHANCE OF SEEING RAINFALL TONIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY GRADUALLY
SINKS ITS WAY SOUTH AND THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES. CURRENT POPS
LOOK GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. DESPITE MARGINAL DEEP
LAYER SHEAR...THERE DOES STILL APPEAR TO BE AN ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO
INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDINGS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE A
POSSIBILITY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES.

DIFFERENCES THEN APPEAR ON WEDNESDAY BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND NAM
ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY AND H85 FRONT. THE NAM IS
MORE PROGRESSIVE AND PUSHES THE BOUNDARIES SOUTH MORE QUICKLY THAN
THE GFS. THE NAM IS ALSO FASTER IN BRINGING ACROSS THE H7 TROUGH
AND ITS ASSOCIATED FORCING. IN EITHER CASE...IT DOES APPEAR THE
RAIN CHANCES ARE STILL GOOD ON WEDNESDAY...AND HAVE INCREASED POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA...ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF. WILL THEN
HOLD ONTO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN THE
SOUTH...BUT THEN GO DRY ON THURSDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.  UPPER RIDGE AXIS TO OUR
SOUTHEAST BEGINS TO BUILD BACK TO THE WEST AND NORTH DURING THE
EXTENDED PORTION OF THE FORECAST.  STRENGTH OF RIDGE AXIS AND
PLACEMENT IS MODEL DEPENDENT WITH ECMWF KEEPING RIDGE MORE TO OUR
SOUTH THAN THE GFS.  UNTIL RIDGE AXIS MOVES FURTHER NORTH AND WEST
ONTO THE PLAINS...THE CHANCE FOR A TSTM CANNOT BE COMPLETELY RULED
OUT AND HAVE ADDED SOME LOW POPS TO THE WEEKEND IN OUR NEBRASKA
COUNTIES...WHICH BLENDS WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.  KS COUNTIES REMAIN DRY
ATTM.  OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS OR JUST
ABOVE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

CK/CF

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
021200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
249 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WITH
CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH
THE PRIMARY HAZARD. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
AS THE STORMS TRACK OVER THE SAME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

06

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
537 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

NEZ063-076-012330-
CLAY-HAMILTON-
537 PM CDT TUE AUG 1 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHWESTERN CLAY AND SOUTHWESTERN HAMILTON
COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR HARVARD...OR 12 MILES EAST OF HASTINGS...AND
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GILTNER BY 550 PM CDT
  STOCKHAM BY 555 PM CDT
  AURORA BY 605 PM CDT

SMALL HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

AWJ

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