Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
240 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2006

.SHORT TERM...MAIN PROBLEM WILL BE RAIN CHANCES TONIGHT. AFTERNOON
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CUMULUS POPPING ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
KANSAS...AND ACROSS NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. HAVE CONTINUED TO CARRY A
SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AS THE CIN CONTINUES TO
ERODE AND WE APPROACH/EXCEED CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTH.
THINK CHANCES FOR SEVERE ARE MINIMAL WITH MAINLY A HIGH BUOYANCY
LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH MAINLY PULSE TYPE STORMS. WEAK
STEARING FLOW AND SLOW STORM MOTIONS COULD ALSO LEAD TO HEAVY
RAINFALL. HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT AN ISOLATED STORM MAY TRY TO
DEVELOP IN THE EAST LATER THIS EVENING WITH THE 12Z GFS SUGGESTING
THERE COULD BE H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THAT LOCATION AS THE LOW
LEVEL JET INCREASES THIS EVENING. THE 12Z NAM-WRF IS FURTHER EAST
WITH THIS AND AFTER COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES HAVE
DECIDED TO NOT JUMP ON THIS...BUT WILL PASS ALONG CONCERNS TO THE
NEXT SHIFT.

ON FRIDAY...IT APPEARS IT SHOULD BE MAINLY DRY AND HOT WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE AREA. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THEN
BEGINS TO APPROACH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER EVEN THE FASTER 12Z
NAM-WRF HAS SLOWED THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSION SLIGHTLY. WILL ALTER
POPS A BIT TO PUSH THEM INTO THE HOURS WELL PAST MIDNIGHT AND
CONFINE THEM TO MAINLY THE NORTHWEST. DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS
AND NAM-WRF THEN CONTINUE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE
NAM-WRF PUSHING THE BOUNDARY SOUTH MORE QUICKLY THAN THE GFS. IN
EITHER CASE...IT APPEARS THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WHICH LINGERS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE HARD
QUESTION IS WHICH AREAS WILL BE FAVORED FOR HIGHER CHANCES...AND
HAVE GONE CLOSER TO THE 12Z GFS WHICH IS CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY
THE 12Z UKMET. THIS WILL PLACE THE SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCES IN THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
IN THE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TIMEFRAME ARE THE MAIN CONCERN.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT SLIDES SOUTH THROUGH THE CWA AND THEN STALLS
IN THE AREA WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER THROUGH TUESDAY. MODEL SOLUTIONS
STILL DIFFER IN THE MOVEMENT AND PLACEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY...MAKING
NAILING DOWN PRECIP CHANCES DIFFICULT. THE GENERAL MODEL CONSENSUS
IS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY WEST TO EAST SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS AND UKMET ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON
THIS...WITH THE ECMWF A LITTLE SLOWER BRINGING THE FRONT DOWN AND
THE NAM FASTER. HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED THE GFS FOR FRONTAL
POSITION. AFTER MOVING THROUGH THE CWA ON SUNDAY...THE FRONT STALLS
ACROSS NORTHERN KANSAS AND LINGERS IN THE VICINITY MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...AN EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED NORTH OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE COMBINATION OF THE FRONT ACROSS OR THE IN THE
VICINITY OF THE CWA...UPSLOPE FLOW AT LOW LEVELS...AND WEAK
SHORTWAVES MOVING THROUGH A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING SEVERAL
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA BETWEEN SUNDAY AND
INDEPENDENCE DAY. UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT BOUNDARY POSITION AND ABSENCE
OF ANY WELL DEFINED SHORTWAVES HAVE PRECLUDED INTRODUCING HIGHER
POPS AT THIS POINT.

AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD SOUTH LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...THE BOUNDARY GETS SHUNTED SOUTH WITH A DRIER...MORE
STABLE AIRMASS SPREADING OVER THE AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE CONTINUED
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS INTO TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS INDICATES THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MAY
BUILD IN A BIT SOONER THAN PREVIOUS RUNS WERE INDICATING...WHICH
WOULD HELP PUSH PRECIP SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TUESDAY EVENING. WILL
HAVE TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS. HEIGHTS THEN BUILD OVER THE AREA
ON THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...WHILE
RETURN FLOW KICKS IN AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES SHOULD COOL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN WAKE OF THE FRONT AND
WITH AN EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN PLACE...BUT THEN REBOUND INTO
THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S BY THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT AND RETURN FLOW AT THE SURFACE.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

CK/KB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
1135 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
301200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
1135 AM CDT THU JUN 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING SOUTH
OF INTERSTATE 80. SMALL HAIL...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WITH THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE ARE INTERMITTENT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

KING