Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
212 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH BOUNDARY
EXTENDING UP INTO NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND WILL THROW OUT ISOLATED
POPS FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THIS ACTIVITY. SOME
DECENT BUOYANCY BUT A VERY WEAK WIND PROFILE TO WORK WITH AT THIS
TIME.

SHORTWAVE TROUGH COMING IN TONIGHT FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS
UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. IN FACT IT LOOKS LIKE NORTHWEST FLOW FOR THE
CWA THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. LOOKS LIKE GOOD DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL
HELP EXPECTED MCS TONIGHT AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES MUCH MORE ROBUST
TO PRODUCE SOME SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST. IT APPEARS THAT
BY THE TIME THE MCS REACHES OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST ZONES...THE
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MUCH LESS AND WE WILL PRIMARILY BE DEALING
WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE MCS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOOKS
LIKE A RELATIVELY LATE EVENT...INVOLVING PRIMARILY LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. TIMING OF ANY GIVEN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...EVEN FOR
TONIGHT...WILL BE A CHALLENGE AS IT USUALLY IS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

I AM A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES CAUSED BY THIS EVENT
TO MAYBE HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION TO THE WEST. IN THE WESTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON MAY PUT A SLIGHT
PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION THERE. WITH BUILDING RIDGE IN THE WEST...OUR
NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS PROMINENT AND AM EXPECTING MANY IMPULSES TO
COME OUR WAY DURING THE PERIOD. ANOTHER REASON TO ADD CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IN WEST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY AFTER SEEING CONVECTION OCCUR TODAY. I THINK WE
HAVE ENOUGH OF A SHOT ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO PUT PRECIPITATION CHANCE
IN AS WELL AS WE WILL BE ON THE OUTER PERIPHERY OF A WAVE ROTATING
AROUND AN UPPER LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. CHANGED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND SKY COVER ACCORDINGLY. LOWERED TEMPERATURES
ON MONDAY MORNING AND TWEAKED GRIDS ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. MAIN PROBLEM IN THE MEDIUM
RANGE IS DISCERNING FAVORED PERIODS FOR THUNDERSTORMS.  MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS HAVE COME INTO SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY.  THE 06Z
GFS...00Z ECMWF AND LATEST HPC SURFACE PROGS SUGGEST A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL APPROACH THE REGION STARTING TUESDAY AND THEN
OSCILLATE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.  HAVE DECIDED
TO GO CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF TIMING WHICH KEEPS THE BOUNDARY MAINLY
NORTH OF THE AREA ON TUESDAY...HOWEVER THINK IT WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH
BY WEDNESDAY TO WARRANT POPS.  WILL GENERALLY CONFINE POPS TO
REFLECT THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE NOCTURNAL STORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS H85 WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT OCCURS
OVER THE BOUNDARY.  THOUGHT ABOUT ADDING A SMALL POP TO FRIDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...BUT CONFIDENCE IN BOUNDARY PLACEMENT DECREASES BY
THEN...ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCES OF PRIOR CONVECTION POTENTIALLY
IMPACTING THE BOUNDARY MOVEMENT.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

HEINLEIN/KING

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
650 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
241200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
650 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR
A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR
AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281. LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A GOLFBALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS
UP TO 70 MPH WILL ALSO BE A HAZARD FOR AREAS WEST OF HIGHWAY 281
INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN INTERMITTENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. ALTHOUGH NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10 PM TONIGHT.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
930 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

NEZ039-240315-
VALLEY-
930 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR NORTHERN VALLEY COUNTY...

AT 929 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORT HARTSUFF STATE PARK...OR 9 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF BURWELL...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ELYRIA AT 935 PM CDT...
  ORD AT 955 PM CDT...

PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

BRYANT

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