Severe Thunderstorm Warning 102, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
236 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.  ATTENTION IS
THUNDERSTORMS...ONGOING AND LATER DEVELOPING.  MORNING MCS PRODUCED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON AVERAGE OF ONE TENTH TO NEAR ONE HALF INCH
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA.  CONVECTION REMAINS ONGOING IN NORTH CENTRAL
KANSAS AND ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY HAS DEVELOPED ALONG OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES IN OUR EASTERN CWA...AIDED BY INCREASING INSOLATION.

MAIN FOCUS THOUGH IS ON THE NEXT ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SURFACE TROUGH OR WEAK COLD FRONT WAS
ORIENTED FROM KANW TO KAIA AND KSNY AS OF 18Z.  MOISTURE AXIS WAS
LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  LAPS DATA
INDICATES THE HIGHER INSTABILITIES WITH SFC BASED CAPES OF 1500-2000
J/KG ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN WESTERN NEBRASKA...WITH LITTLE CIN.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LINE OF CUMULUS DEVELOPING
AS WELL...KUEX HAS SHOWN DEVELOPMENT NEAR BROWNLEE IN CHERRY
COUNTY.  ALL INDICATIONS SHOW THAT THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE AREA OF
CONTINUED INITIATION IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE AND MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR CWA THIS
EVENING.  THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD MAKE A BETTER PUSH SOUTHEAST
SHORTLY AS ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW IN SASKATCHEWAN PUSHES
FURTHER SOUTHEAST INTO SOUTH DAKOTA.  SHEAR IS DECENT FOR STORM
ORGANIZATION...WITH ENHANCEMENT BOTH ALONG APPROACHING AND RESIDUAL
BOUNDARIES.  EXPECT PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE
HAIL.  LOWER LCL HEIGHTS...TEMP DEWPOINT SPREADS...AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENT AREA IS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR
STORMS AS ANOTHER BOUNDARY STRETCHES ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.  THIS
AREA IS IN SPC MODERATE RISK OUTLOOK. CANNOT COMPLETE RULE OUT
TORNADIC DEVELOP...HOWEVER WIND...HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

THE COOL FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES THROUGH TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION
WILL WIND DOWN AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
TUESDAY AND HEIGHTS RISE AND TEMPERATURES MODERATE AGAIN.  IN THE
DRIER AIRMASS...AFTERNOON READINGS SHOULD STILL REACH INTO THE 80S.

.LONG TERM...00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

AN UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILD INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM AS
850MB TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 22 TO 26 DEG C.

BY THURSDAY A SHORT WAVE SLIDES ACROSS THE RIDGE AND WITH A
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING TO THE WEST THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY INITIATE
TO THE WEST ALONG THE FRONT...BUT WILL MOVE INTO FORECAST AREA
BEFORE THEY DISSIPATE.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN AS MORE SHORT WAVES MOVE INTO
THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND. WITH EACH OF THE SHORT WAVES THERE IS
A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT THERE WOULD BE SOME SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA. AFTER THE COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE AREA.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.
&&

CF/JCB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
504 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-
061200-
PHILLIPS-SMITH-JEWELL-ROOKS-OSBORNE-MITCHELL-VALLEY-GREELEY-NANCE-
SHERMAN-HOWARD-MERRICK-POLK-DAWSON-BUFFALO-HALL-HAMILTON-YORK-
GOSPER-PHELPS-KEARNEY-ADAMS-CLAY-FILLMORE-FURNAS-HARLAN-FRANKLIN-
WEBSTER-NUCKOLLS-THAYER-
504 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL THE SIZE
OF GOLF BALLS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED TO THE NORTHWEST AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS FROM THE STORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HOWEVER THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO AND LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL DOES EXIST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

INTERMITTENT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS EXIST DURING THE TUESDAY TO
SUNDAY TIME FRAME. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING IS POSSIBLE IN ANY
THUNDERSTORM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

MORE INFORMATION MAY BE OBTAINED AT THE FOLLOWING WEB PAGE:
   HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HASTINGS  (ALL LOWERCASE)

JCB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
615 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

NEZ060-060000-
DAWSON-
615 PM CDT MON JUN 5 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR DAWSON COUNTY...

AT 613 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CALLAWAY...OR 19 MILES
SOUTH OF ARNOLD...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  GOTHENBURG AT 625 PM CDT...
  WILLOW ISLAND AT 635 PM CDT...
  COZAD AT 645 PM CDT...
  EDDYVILLE AT 700 PM CDT...

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH
THIS STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

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