Severe Thunderstorm Warning 100, NWS Hastings, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
305 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

.SHORT TERM...FORECAST FOCUS IS THE RISK FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT.

TWO AREAS OF CONCERN SHOW UP. ONE IS THROUGH EARLY EVENING AS WEAK
CONVERGENCE NEAR/IN SOUTHEAST/EASTERN CWFA. INCREASED MOISTURE OVER
SOUTHEAST CWFA COULD BE ENOUGH TO POP A FEW STORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. STORMS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE WILL WORK EAST...THEN SOUTHEAST
BY LATE EVENING AND MORE LIKELY TO IMPACT THE SOUTHWEST CWFA. AS
THIS HAPPENS...UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ALL OF THIS SPELLS RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS...AND BROAD BRUSHED
WITH ISOLATED/SCATTERED CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

TROUGH PASSES EARLY THURSDAY MORNING LEAVING A VERY PLEASANT DAY.

SOME DISCUSSION REGARDING RETURN FLOW AND OVERNIGHT MID LEVEL
CONVECTION BUT HELD OFF FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS
WILL BE WITH A COOL FRONT THAT MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
MONDAY NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

A WEAK SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE RIDGE ON SATURDAY...BUT THERE IS
NOT MUCH MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AND THE SURFACE FRONT IS FAR ENOUGH
TO THE WEST THAT THERE SHOULD NOT BE ANYTHING TO INITIATE ON.

THE SURFACE FRONT REMAINS TO THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. DURING THAT TIME THERE WILL BE SOUTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES AT 850MB ARE EXPECTED TO BE 20 TO 24 DEC C. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR WARM TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...A SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
EASTERN NEBRASKA AND IOWA. SINCE THERE IS LITTLE MOISTURE IN THIS
AREA AND THE UPPER SUPPORT IS TO THE EAST...EXPECT THAT THERE WILL
BE NO PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH...THE TEMPERATURES ONLY BRIEFLY DROP
BELOW 20 DEG C AT 850MB BEFORE WARMING BACK UP AGAIN. THE COOLER AIR
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED AND NOT VERY COOL TO BEGIN WITH. ONLY HAVE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THAN OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

05/JCB

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
636 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

KSZ019-010000-
MITCHELL-
636 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR MITCHELL COUNTY...

AT 633 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SIMPSON...OR 19 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
738 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HEAVY RAIN       SIMPSON                 39.39N 97.93W
05/31/2006  M2.25 INCH       MITCHELL           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HEAVY RAIN LASTED FOR ABOUT AN HOUR

&&

KING

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
810 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

KSZ007-010145-
JEWELL-
810 PM CDT WED MAY 31 2006

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT FOR JEWELL COUNTY...

AT 806 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR FORMOSO...OR 24 MILES NORTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA...AND MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL EASTERN JEWELL COUNTY AT 820 PM CDT

DIME SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS AROUND 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
STORM.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.