Severe Thunderstorm Warning 56, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
950 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

.UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING.  THIS CONVECTION IS FORMING IN RESPONSE TO INCREASED LARGE
SCALE FORCING AND MID LEVEL INSTABILITY.  WILL INCREASE MORNING POPS
AND ALSO BUMP UP AFTERNOON POPS SLIGHTLY.

THE DRY LINE REMAINS OVER WEST TEXAS AT THIS TIME BUT ITS ON THE
MOVE AND SHOULD ENTER INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES OF NORTH TEXAS IN
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.  BEST SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL
REMAIN OVER THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
311 AM

A LOT GOING ON IN THE FORECAST THIS MORNING AS H5 LONGWAVE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO APPROACH NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST. MODELS IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TODAYS WEATHER...AS WE CONTINUE TO EXPECT THE
DRY LINE AND ADVANCING PACIFIC COLD FRONT TO QUICKLY SWEEP EAST
ACROSS N TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE A PROBLEM...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OF LATE...BUT A RELATIVELY
STRONG CAPPING INVERSION SHOULD LIMIT STORM DEVELOPMENT...EXCEPT
FOR AREAS CLOSER TO THE RED RIVER AND EAST OF I-35...WHERE THERE WILL
BE AN ENHANCED CHANCE OF STORMS...POSSIBLY SEVERE...THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE ADJUSTED SEVERE STORM FORECAST CLOSER TO NEW DAY
1 FROM SPC. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND BREEZY WINDS
ALOFT WILL ALSO COMBINE TO BRING VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO MOST OF
N TEXAS TODAY. CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD. WE ADJUSTED THE
RED FLAG WARNING A BIT FURTHER EAST...AS NEW DATA SUGGESTS LOWER
DEW POINTS WILL MAKE IT FURTHER EAST...AS WELL AS THE STRONGER
WINDS.

FRONT/DRY LINE SHOULD PUSH EAST OF N TEXAS LATE TONIGHT...ENDING
CHANCES OF RAIN/STORMS. H5 LOW WILL SLOWLY WORK EAST...JUST N
TEXAS N TEXAS FRIDAY...WITH SOME PVA AND COLD AIR ALOFT. FEEL
STORM CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN JUST N OF RED RIVER SO WILL NOT ADD
THEM ATTM.

QUITE A PLEASANT WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE ANOTHER
WEAKER H5 LOW AND WEAK COLD FRONT BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  79  56  78  50 /  20  20   0   0
WACO, TX              81  58  81  50 /  20  20   0   0
PARIS, TX             78  56  77  50 /  30  30  10  10
DENTON, TX            81  54  78  44 /  30  20   0   0
MCKINNEY, TX          79  54  78  50 /  30  20   0  10
DALLAS, TX            79  57  77  50 /  20  20   0   0
TERRELL, TX           80  56  77  50 /  20  30  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         82  58  77  48 /  20  30   0   0
TEMPLE, TX            83  56  80  48 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-
TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-
TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-
TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-
TXZ092-TXZ093-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ115-TXZ116-
TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ141-
TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ156-TXZ157.

&&

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1035 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

TXZ119-061630-
DALLAS-
1035 AM CDT THU APR 6 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1035 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES NORTH OF GRAND PRAIRIE...MOVING
NORTHEAST
AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE THE CITY OF DALLAS...
COCKRELL HILL...AND UNIVERSITY PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.