Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
930 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

.UPDATE...
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER EASTERN NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS EVENING.
THE DRY LINE HAS DRIFTED WESTWARD THIS EVENING. AS THE UPPER LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MOVES EASTWARD...THE PACIFIC FRONT WILL OVERTAKE THE
DRYLINE...AND MOVE EASTWARD INTO THE NORTH TEXAS LATE TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AT NEAR 50 MPH. WE WILL HAVE TO SEE HOW MUCH FARTHER SOUTH
THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALSO FORMED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS BETWEEN DEL RIO AND KERRVILLE. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE STORMS TO THE SOUTH COULD HAVE A
NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE STORMS FARTHER NORTH...BUT WITH DECENT LAPSE
RATES...AND SHEAR...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE FOR ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. #58

&&

.AVIATION...
526 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006
TIMING THUNDERSTORMS VERY DIFFICULT THIS EVENING AS BEST DYNAMICS
ARE STILL UPSTREAM. CONVECTION NOW BREAKING OUT IN THE WEST EXPECTED
TO MOVE NORTH OF METROPLEX AIRPORTS AND STRONGER STORMS SHOULD FORM
IN TWO TO FOUR HOURS AS UPPER SUPPORT MOVES IN. HAVE OPTED FOR
BEST CHANCE OF TSTMS AT TAF SITES AFTER 06Z...BUT I CANNOT GUARANTEE
A TSTM FREE EVENING BEFORE THAT TIME AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED.
AFTER DRY LINE PASSES IN THE MORNING GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL CAUSE
CROSSWIND PROBLEMS FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.   84

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

535 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006
HAVE SENT UPDATED ZONES TO ADD NEW TORNADO WATCH #42 THAT WILL BE IN
EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT...GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A  SHERMAN...
DENTON...WEATHERFORD...GLEN ROSE LINE.  #58

321 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006
POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING
INTO TOMORROW. A DRYLINE IS LOCATED NEAR AN OKLAHOMA CITY TO
STEPHENVILLE TO SAN ANGELO LINE...AND A PACIFIC FRONT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THROUGH NEW MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS
THE CAP INDICATED ON OUR 18Z SOUNDING BEGINS TO BREAK. THE PACIFIC
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY CATCH UP TO THE DRYLINE AND PUSH EAST THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT.

IT APPEARS THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SUPERCELLS EARLY IN THE
EVENT AND AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE...BEFORE THE DRYLINE/PACIFIC FRONT
CONSOLIDATES THE CONVECTION. A SQUALL LINE IS EXPECTED TO FORM
ALONG THE EASTWARD MOVING BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT. BOWING SEGMENTS/
DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SQUALL LINE WITH
IMPRESSIVE WINDS INDICATED AT ALL LEVELS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
NEARS...MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL APPROACH 9 DEGREES C ACROSS
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A RESULT...LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE A
THREAT.

A 50-60 KT LLJ WILL SET UP OVERNIGHT AND MAY AID IN KEEPING STORMS
SURFACE BASED INTO THE MORNING. IF THE BOUNDARY LAYER CAN MANAGE
NOT TO DECOUPLE...THERE IS A CHANCE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...GIVEN
0-1 KM SHEAR VALUES CLOSE TO 50 KTS. MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT
WILL BE PLAYING CATCH UP WITH THE MOISTURE...WHICH WILL BE RAPIDLY
SHUNTED EAST BY THE BOUNDARY. THEREFORE...SOME AREAS OF NORTH
TEXAS MAY NOT SEE MUCH PRECIPITATION WITH THIS EVENT...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH AND WEST. DRY AIR AND VERY GUSTY WINDS WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION BEHIND THE SYSTEM. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH PREVIOUSLY IN
EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A
RED FLAG WARNING.

THERE ARE SEVERAL LOW CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS NORTH TEXAS REMAINS IN ACTIVE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN IMPRESSIVE
SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A FRONTAL
PASSAGE ON MONDAY AND A RETURN TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  57  73  49  80 /  60  20  10  10
WACO, TX              56  75  48  83 /  50  30  10  10
PARIS, TX             59  71  45  79 /  80  60  10  10
DENTON, TX            56  72  45  78 /  80  20  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          56  72  45  80 /  80  40  10  10
DALLAS, TX            60  73  51  79 /  60  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           59  72  46  78 /  60  60  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         62  75  49  81 /  60  60  10  10
TEMPLE, TX            59  77  49  82 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-
TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-
TXZ131-TXZ132.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 7 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-
TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ129-TXZ130-
TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ156-
TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ161-TXZ174-TXZ175.

&&

58/13/84

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
539 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-091200-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
539 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH LARGE HAIL...DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH...FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN. THERE IS ALSO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW TORNADOES. THIS EVENINGS THREAT BEGINS WEST OF A
LINE FROM SHERMAN...CLEBURNE...EASTLAND AND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD AND
SOUTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
SEVERE STORMS MAY STILL BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. AS A DRY LINE MOVES THROUGH GUSTY WEST
WINDS AND RAPIDLY LOWERING HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE A CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER THURSDAY AFTERNOON WEST OF A BOWIE...FORT WORTH...HILLSBORO...
HEARNE LINE.

LOW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT...SPREADING EASTWARD AFTER MIDNIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
523 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ101-082345-

JACK-
523 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 523 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING THUNDERSTORM 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
JACKSBORO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.  THIS STORM IS BEING CLOSELY
MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING MAY BE ISSUED SHORTLY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CUNDIFF AND JACKSBORO.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
540 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ091-090015-

MONTAGUE-
540 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 540 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES WEST OF NOCONA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE RINGGOLD AND STONEBURG.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
544 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ101-116-090015-

JACK-PALO PINTO-
544 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 544 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES NORTH OF PALO PINTO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CUNDIFF...GRAFORD...
JACKSBORO...PERRIN AND VINEYARD.

ONE-HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM
THIS STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
617 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ101-102-090045-

JACK-WISE-
617 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 617 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BRIDGEPORT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BRIDGEPORT...CHICO AND
VINEYARD.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

THIS STORM IS BEING CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF INTENSIFICATION
AND A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE ISSUED FOR WISE COUNTY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
836 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ093-090300-

GRAYSON-
836 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 836 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES WEST OF SHERMAN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE DENISON...DORCHESTER...
KNOLLWOOD...POTTSBORO AND SHERMAN.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
840 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

TXZ119-090315-

DALLAS-
840 PM CST WED MAR 8 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 840 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF HIGHLAND PARK...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ADDISON...COCKRELL HILL...
DALLAS...FARMERS BRANCH...GARLAND...HIGHLAND PARK...RICHARDSON...
SACHSE AND UNIVERSITY PARK.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.