Severe Thunderstorm Warning 265, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
313 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

.DISCUSSION...
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTIVE EVENT POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT. GFS MODEL HAS A SIGNAL FOR
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DEVELOPING TO OUR NORTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AND SPREADING SOUTH AND EAST TONIGHT. SINCE CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ALREADY WELL UNDERWAY AT THIS TIME IN SOUTHWEST
OKLAHOMA...WE HAVE TO BELIEVE GFS IS ON THE RIGHT TRACK WITH
CONVECTION DEVELOPING JUST AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.

THERE ARE SEVERAL PARAMETERS THAT POINT TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A
SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND EVENT AT SOME POINT THIS EVENING OR
OVERNIGHT. CONVECTION THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN AREA OF
EXTREME INSTABILITY WILL EVENTUALLY CREATE A SIGNIFICANT COLD
POOL...WHICH IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER TO THE
SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING AS WIND SHEAR VECTORS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TONIGHT. THE AIRMASS OVER PARTS OF NORTH TEXAS
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE MORNING MCS...BUT SATELLITE AND
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AIRMASS RECOVERY IS WELL
UNDERWAY. A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE WAS MOVING NORTH IN A BROAD AREA
FROM KSAT TO KBWD WITH 70+ DEWPTS AND THICKER CU FIELD. AS THE MCS
BEGINS TO MATURE AROUND KSPS AND KCDS THIS AFTN/EVE...THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP INTO A FORWARD
PROPAGATING MCS NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. IF THE SYSTEM
EVOLVES AS EXPECTED...THEN COLD POOL/MESOHIGH EFFECTS ALONG WITH
INCREASING UPPER LEVEL NW WINDS BEHIND THE UPPER TROUGH COULD
COMBINE TO PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ALONG LEADING
EDGE OF MCS TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALREADY IN EFFECT
FOR WESTERN ZONES UNTIL 02Z...AND FULLY EXPECT ANOTHER WATCH AFTER
THAT TIME.

GIVEN THE EXPECTED FAST MOVEMENT OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN...HAVE OPTED
TO NOT ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER...WE WILL HAVE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING RAINS ACROSSS SOUTHERN AND
SOUTHEASTERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE MCS SLOWS DOWN AND
GRADUALLY WEAKENS.

BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING ON SUNDAY
AS TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF FORECAST AREA. WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS
ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH AND EAST INTO WEDNESDAY AS DEEPER
MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE VICINITY OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS
THROUGH MIDWEEK. EXPECT DRY WEATHER WITH SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR THURSDAY-SATURDAY PERIOD.   09/GP

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  70  93  72  94 /  80  30  10  10
WACO, TX              73  94  73  93 /  80  40  20  10
PARIS, TX             71  88  69  90 /  60  40  20  10
DENTON, TX            71  93  69  94 /  80  30  10  10
MCKINNEY, TX          69  91  68  93 /  80  30  10  10
DALLAS, TX            70  91  72  93 /  80  30  10  10
TERRELL, TX           70  92  71  93 /  70  40  10  10
CORSICANA, TX         73  91  73  93 /  80  40  20  10
TEMPLE, TX            73  92  73  94 /  80  40  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 9 PM SATURDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-
TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143.

&&

91/09

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-181100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
337 PM CDT SAT JUN 17 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM TONIGHT FOR
AREAS WEST OF A GAINESVILLE TO WEATHERFORD TO HAMILTON LINE.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTH AND NORTHWEST TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
INITIALLY...LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THESE
STORMS...BUT THEY ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO A SEVERE LINE OF
STORMS BY LATER TONIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT
LATER TONIGHT AS THESE STORMS MOVE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS AND DEVELOP
SOUTHWARD.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT ALL OF NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE
SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY MORNING...THEN
OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.

DUNN

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