Severe Thunderstorm Warning 183, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
401 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...ANOTHER ROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS (MCS) IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...

.DISCUSSION...
OVERNIGHT MCS WAS ON TIME BUT NOT AS FAR NORTH AS EXPECTED. THE MCS
WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN COUNTIES BY DAYBREAK AND THEN INTO EAST
TEXAS LATER THIS MORNING. A LITTLE ACTIVITY COULD LINGER EAST OF
I-35 UNTIL LATE MORNING.

SINCE THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRETTY WORKED OVER...DO NOT EXPECT MUCH TO
FIRE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. HOWEVER OUR ATMOSPHERE
WILL RECOVER BY THIS EVENING WITH ANOTHER MCS DEVELOPING OUT WEST BY
THIS EVENING. A WEAK QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL BE DRAPED WEST-EAST
ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...NEAR THE I-20
CORRIDOR...AND WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR MCS MOVEMENT AND HEAVY
RAINFALL. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS AND FLASH
FLOODING ARE A HIGH CONCERN FOR TONIGHT.  WE TALKED ABOUT A FLOOD
WATCH FOR TONIGHT...BUT INCONSISTENCY IN MODEL RUNS AND RAIN AMOUNTS
LEADS ME TO HOLD OFF AND ALLOW THE DAY TEAM TO RECONSIDER.

THE MCS WILL EXIT INTO EAST TEXAS ON SATURDAY WITH SOME LINGERING
ACTIVITY DURING THE DAY. ONCE AGAIN...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE SATURDAY. A BEAUTIFUL DAY IS IN STORE FOR NORTH TEXAS
SUNDAY.

UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME SUNDAY WITH A
SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS REGION BY MONDAY. HAVE CONTINUED LOW CHANCE
POPS FOR TSRA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE ELEVATED...THUS SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE LIMITED TO HAIL.

ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNS TO THE EAST AND SOUTH COUNTIES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE NORTH HALF WILL BE COOLER TODAY...AND MOST OF NORTH TEXAS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND NORTHERLY
SURFACE FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...THEN ANOTHER COOL FRONT ARRIVES WITH 5-8 DEGREE COOLER
DOWN FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  78  63  74  58 /  30  80  50  20
WACO, TX              83  63  78  59 /  30  80  50  20
PARIS, TX             73  59  70  55 /  40  60  60  30
DENTON, TX            76  59  72  55 /  30  80  50  20
MCKINNEY, TX          76  59  72  55 /  30  80  60  20
DALLAS, TX            79  63  74  60 /  30  80  50  20
TERRELL, TX           79  61  74  57 /  30  80  60  20
CORSICANA, TX         81  64  76  59 /  30  80  60  20
TEMPLE, TX            84  64  80  61 /  40  80  50  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/75

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
230 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-051100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
230 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE REMAINS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT. LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS
ARE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS
WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE BOTH DAYS. LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WITH DAMAGING WINDS
ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTH.

THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
NORTH AND EAST OF A PALESTINE...STEPHENVILLE....JACKSBORO LINE.

58

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
416 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ105-123-050945-

HUNT-RAINS-
416 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 416 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF GREENVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 30 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CADDO MILLS...EAST
TAWAKONI...GREENVILLE...QUINLAN AND WEST TAWAKONI.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ122-123-051000-
RAINS-VAN ZANDT-
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR RAIN AND VAN ZANDT COUNTIES...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
WILLS POINT TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CANTON...EDGEWOOD...
EDOM...EMORY...FRUITVALE...GRAND SALINE...VAN...WILLS POINT AND LAKE
TAWAKONI STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ122-123-051000-
RAINS-VAN ZANDT-
432 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR RAINS AND VAN ZANDT COUNTIES...

AT 432 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF
WILLS POINT TO 4 MILES NORTHEAST OF GUN BARREL CITY...MOVING EAST AT
40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE CANTON...EDGEWOOD...
EDOM...EMORY...FRUITVALE...GRAND SALINE...VAN...WILLS POINT AND LAKE
TAWAKONI STATE PARK.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THESE
STORMS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ107-051030-
HOPKINS-
444 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR HOPKINS COUNTY...

AT 444 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES SOUTH OF SULPHUR SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT
35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE COMO...CUMBY AND SULPHUR
SPRINGS.

NEARLY CONTINUOUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...
PEA-SIZED HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
456 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

TXZ094-051030-
FANNIN-
456 AM CDT FRI MAY 5 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE FOR FANNIN COUNTY...

AT 456 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF BONHAM...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BONHAM...ECTOR AND SAVOY.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.