Severe Thunderstorm Warning 121, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1139 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

.UPDATE...
BUSY SEVERE WEATHER NIGHT CONTINUES AS UPPER LOW CONTS PUSHING
INTO W TX WITH 40-50KT 500MB FLOW ALOFT AND VEERED SFC FLOW ALONG
PSEUDO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST N OF I-20 CORRIDOR WITH
DEW PTS MAINLY IN THE LOW-MID 60S. SEVERAL CLUSTERS CONT MOVING
THRU THE REGION WITH POSSIBLE TORNADIC SUPERCELL MOVING INTO NRN
COLLIN/SRN GRAYSON COUNTIES.

OTHER ELEMENTS OVER WRN COUNTIES AND DOWN TOWARD LAMPASAS/BELL/CORYELL
AREAS LOOK TO BE FORMING LINE SEGMENTS WITH MESO LOWS ON NRN
FLANKS WHICH STILL COULD PRODUCE TORNADOES IN NRN SEGMENTS WITH
LARGE HAIL ON LEADING EDGE OF THESE SEGMENTS AND POTENTIAL STRONG
TO SEVERE STRAIGHT- LINE WINDS S OF THESE MESO LOWS ON THE NRN
FLANKS. HAVE ADDED ADDITIONAL SEVERE WORDING TO ZONES FOR
POTENTIAL AND ONGOING MAGNITUDE OF EVENT. HAVE ALSO UPDATED TO ADD
NEW TORNADO WATCH #260 ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF N TX (ERN
COUNTIES) THAT WERENT IN EARLIER TORNADO WATCH #258. SEE ADVISORY
LINE BELOW FOR DETAILS AND SEE SWOMCD/S AND SWODY1 AS WELL.
UPDATES ON THE WAY.

OTHERWISE...THOUGH CELLS HAVE GOOD MOVEMENTS TO THE E/NE...MSTR-
RICH ENVIRONMENT HAS RESULTED IN LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS A
FEW COUNTIES ACROSS N TX...SO THAT STILL REMAINS A THREAT AS
WELL...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND WILL NOT ISSUE A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH SOME WEAKENING NOTED.
HOWEVER...WITH STRENGTH OF UPPER LOW OUT WEST AND ASSOCIATED
SHEAR...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 853 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006/

UPDATE...
OVERALL...THE CURRENT FORECAST APPEARS TO HAVE THINGS WELL IN
HAND...BUT WILL MAKE MINOR CHANGES TO THE FIRST PERIOD TO ACCOUNT
FOR CURRENT CONVECTIVE TRENDS.  CATEGORICAL POPS WILL BE CONTINUED
FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHEAST COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
06Z...WITH HIGH POPS EXPANDED TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE REGION FROM
06Z-12Z.  OTHERWISE...REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS APPEAR TO
BE ON TRACK AT THIS TIME.

65/DD

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF
TO TWO THIRDS OF NORTH TEXAS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH
3/4 INCH HAIL...60 MPH WINDS..AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN
THREATS. CAPES REMAIN BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...WE MUST
KEEP AN EYE ON THE STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRYLINE IN WEST
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THIS
EVENING...AND WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE FOR LARGER HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS. SHEAR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TORNADOES...
MAINLY ACROSS THE WEST. HAVE KEPT HIGH POPS...80 TO 100
PERCENT...ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT. AS THE UPPER
LOW OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON MOVES EAST AND
NORTHEAST....PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME TO AN END FROM WEST TO WEST
LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. WITH THE UPPER LOW SLIDING
ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS SATURDAY...WE MAY SEE SOME STORMS REDEVELOP
IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST...SO HAVE KEPT 20-30
PERCENT POPS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SUNDAY WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER
FLOW BECOMES MORE WEST/NORTHWESTERLY ON MONDAY...ALLOWING A SHORT
WAVE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT TO MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS LATE MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING US ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. AN UNSTABLE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEK WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. #58

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-
TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ115-TXZ116-
TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ129-TXZ130-TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-
TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-
TXZ160-TXZ174.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 7 AM SATURDAY FOR TXZ105-TXZ106-TXZ107-
TXZ120-TXZ121-TXZ122-TXZ123-TXZ135-TXZ146-TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ161-
TXZ162-TXZ175.

&&

05/58

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
520 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
520 PM CDT FRI APR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH TONIGHT.

A 60 MILE WIDE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED SLOWLY NORTH FROM
AN EAST-WEST LINE NEAR THE DALLAS FORT WORTH AREA...TO A LINE FROM
JACKSBORO TO SULPHUR SPRINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND SMALL HAIL WILL OCCUR WITH THESE STORMS. SOME MINOR
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

FURTHER SOUTH...A SLOWLY NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM
SAN ANGELO TO HILLSBORO...AND PALESTINE. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP
ALONG THE WARM FRONT...AND MOVE EASTERLY ON A COURSE NEAR THE WARM
FRONT...THE STORMS COULD BECOME SUPERCELLS.  THIS WOULD RESULT IN A
LOCALIZED THREAT OF VERY LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND POSSIBLY
A TORNADO OR TWO THROUGH THE EVENING. THUS...THE AREA NEAR THE WARM
FRONT CONSTITUTES A LOCALIZED MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY MORNING IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
AS THE STORM COMPLEX EXITS THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
PERIOD OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TONIGHT.

26

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1228 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1212 AM     TSTM WND DMG     MOODY                   31.31N  97.36W
04/29/2006                   MCLENNAN           TX   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            FENCE BLOWN AWAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1238 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1236 AM     FLASH FLOOD      7 NE NOCONA             33.86N  97.64W
04/29/2006                   MONTAGUE           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FM 1956 CLOSED NEAR LAKE NOCONA DUE TO FLOODING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1251 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

TXZ146-290615-

NAVARRO-
1251 AM CDT SAT APR 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 1251 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 21 MILES WEST OF MEXIA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ANGUS...BARRY AND DAWSON.

DESTRUCTIVE WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM...AS WELL AS FREQUENT...DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
STRIKES.

IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

65/DD

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