Flash Flood Warning 75, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

.AVIATION...
BACK EDGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PROGRESSING EASTWARD...SHOULD BE EAST OF
WACO BY 02Z AND EAST OF METROPLEX TAF SITES BY 03Z. LOW CIGS WILL
REMAIN FOR A WHILE OVERNIGHT BUT WITH DRIER PUNCH IN THE LOWEST
LEVELS VISIBILITIES SHOULD IMPROVE. TIMING OF BREAKOUT TO VFR
PROBLEMATIC...BUT WITH WET GROUND AND CHANCE OF MORE PRECIP
OVERNIGHT HAVE OPTED FOR MORNING.    84

&&

.UPDATE...
549 PM
HAVE UPDATED TO REPLACE WATCH 886 WITH WATCH 888. THIS BASICALLY
REMOVED A FEW COUNTIES FROM THE WESTERN PART OF WATCH 886 WHERE THE
SQUALL LINE HAS ALREADY BEEN THROUGH. ALSO...IT EFFECTIVELY
EXTENDED THE TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 AM FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
TORNADO WATCH 887 CONTINUES FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH 8 PM. SQUALL LINE ALONG A LINE FROM WICHITA FALLS...TO
GRANBURY...TO KILLEEN REPRESENTS THE BACK EDGE OF THE SEVERE
THREAT. EXTRAPOLATION SHOWS IT THROUGH THE METROPLEX AROUND
03-04Z. /13

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 356 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006/

DISCUSSION...
VERY BUSY DAY AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTH TEXAS. OUTRAGEOUS HELICITY VALUES HAVE MORE
THAN MADE UP FOR THE LACK OF INSTABILITY...AND WE HAVE HAD SEVERAL
REPORTS OF TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. WATER VAPOR SHOWS POTENT UPPER
LOW STILL SPINNING IN THE VICINITY OF THE NM/TX/NORTHERN MEXICO
INTERFACE. MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A SLOW MOVEMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...WITH ENERGY SHOOTING OUT FROM THE BOTTOM OF THE SYSTEM
OVER NORTH TEXAS. BESIDES THE OBVIOUS TORNADO THREAT...FLOODING
HAS INDEED PROVED TO BE AN ISSUE WITH THE TRAINING TENDENCY
EXHIBITED BY THESE CELLS. HAIL SEEMS TO BE HARDER TO COME BY THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND ONLY A FEW REPORTS OF PEA-SIZE HAIL HAVE
BEEN RECEIVED. WEAK DRY LINE/COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS
EVENING AND WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR BROKEN SQUALL LINE
DEVELOPMENT LATER TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE CHANCES FOR DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL. GIVEN THE STRONGLY MERIDIONAL DEEP LAYER KINEMATIC
PROFILES...STORM MOVEMENT WILL BE SLOW AND FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A THREAT.

UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO CLEAR THE AREA...MAKING A SLOW
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION OVER THE NEXT 36 HRS. EXPECT RAIN
TO COME TO AN END OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS BY TOMORROW EVENING
EVEN AS UPPER LOW REMAINS IN THE VICINITY...AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO
WANE AND THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES DRY SLOTTED.
NORTHERN COUNTIES MAY SEE SOME WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS/PRECIP AS WELL.

PACIFIC FRONT WILL FINALLY PUSH THROUGH BY LATE SUNDAY/EARLY
MONDAY AND WILL NOT HAVE TOO MUCH OF AN IMPACT ON TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES WILL MORE LIKELY BE NUDGED TOWARDS MORE NORMAL VALUES
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR (LOWER 50S FOR HIGHS AND LOWER TO MID 30S
FOR LOWS) AS SEVERAL SHOTS OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION FILTER INTO
THE AREA.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL AFFECT NORTH TEXAS IN THE WEDNESDAY THRU FRIDAY TIME
FRAME AS A STRONG UPPER LOW EJECTS NORTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MEXICO
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW HAVE CONTINUES 20-40% POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA UNTIL MORE DETAILS CAN BE PINNED DOWN.
/13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  50  61  39  57 / 100  20  10   0
WACO, TX              50  62  39  59 / 100  20  10   0
PARIS, TX             54  62  39  54 / 100  50  20  10
DENTON, TX            50  59  38  54 / 100  20  10   0
MCKINNEY, TX          51  61  37  54 / 100  40  20   0
DALLAS, TX            52  62  40  56 / 100  30  10   0
TERRELL, TX           52  62  39  56 / 100  40  10   0
CORSICANA, TX         53  63  40  59 / 100  30  10   0
TEMPLE, TX            49  63  39  61 /  90  20  10   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

84/13

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-301100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
622 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
NORTH TEXAS THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVES
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS PRIMED FOR ROTATING STORMS...
AND TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. A
TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
THROUGH 8 PM...AND FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF UNTIL 2 AM. SEVERAL
TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING
WINDS TO 60 MPH WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY WITH A SQUALL LINE
ALONG AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. FINALLY...LOCALLY VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS SEVERAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCUR. LOOK FOR THE MAJORITY OF
THE SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT TO SHIFT EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 AFTER 9 PM...AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTH
TEXAS THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING...AS A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE
EAST AND AN UPPER LOW ROTATES OUT OF THE AREA. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL EXPAND TO INCLUDE ALL OF NORTH TEXAS BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE REGION.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SHOULD END NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED EAST OF A LINE FROM WICHITA
FALLS...TO TOLAR...TO KILLEEN THIS EVENING...AND EAST OF INTERSTATE
35 DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

13

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
536 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ122-135-300000-

HENDERSON-VAN ZANDT-
536 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL HENDERSON COUNTY
  SOUTHERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 536 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTH AT 45 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE ATHENS...CANEY CITY...
CANTON...EUSTACE...MALAKOFF...VAN AND PURTIS CREEK STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3211 9605 3210 9583 3258 9558 3268 9604

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
600 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ117-300030-

PARKER-
600 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  PARKER COUNTY

AT 600 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER WEATHERFORD...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HUDSON OAKS...RENO...
SPRINGTOWN...WEATHERFORD AND WILLOW PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3277 9799 3260 9772 3296 9756 3299 9794

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
622 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ161-300100-

LIMESTONE-
622 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LIMESTONE COUNTY

AT 622 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12 MILES SOUTH OF GROESBECK...OR JUST EAST OF
THORNTON...MOVING NORTH AT 40 MPH. ANOTHER STRONG STORM WAS
APPROACHING FROM NORTHERN ROBERTSON COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE GROESBECK...MEXIA AND FORT
PARKER STATE PARK.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3123 9663 3137 9634 3171 9644 3173 9674

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
651 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ122-300115-

VAN ZANDT-
651 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN VAN ZANDT COUNTY

AT 651 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES NORTHEAST OF ATHENS...MOVING NORTH AT 40
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE EDOM AND VAN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3237 9569 3235 9551 3235 9545 3248 9558
      3271 9560

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
711 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     FLASH FLOOD      KIRVIN                  31.77N  96.33W
12/29/2006                   FREESTONE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FREESTONE S.O. REPORTS UP TO 2 FEET OF WATER ON HWY 84
            IN KIRVIN/WORTHAM AREA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
722 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

TXZ162-300145-

LEON-
722 PM CST FRI DEC 29 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  EASTERN LEON COUNTY

AT 722 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTH OF MADISONVILLE...MOVING NORTH AT
50 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE CENTERVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3107 9610 3104 9589 3161 9575 3164 9601

92