Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
701 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

.12Z AVIATION UPDATE...LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING...WITH ADDITIONAL PRECIP
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTN. LOWEST LEVELS OF
ATMOSPHERE QUICKLY SATURATING THIS MORNING WITH MVFR CIGS/PRECIP
OVERSPREADING THE AREA. UPPER TROF IS MOVING THROUGH THE TX/OK PANHANDLES
AND WILL CONTINUE TO RACE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST LATER
TODAY...EVENTUALLY SHUTTING DOWN PRECIP OVER NORTH TEXAS. FOR THE
TAFS...WILL HAVE PREVAILING RA WX GROUP WITH MVFR CIGS AREAWIDE
AND WILL SHOW TEMPO FOR TSRA THROUGH MOST OF THE MORNING ALL
SITES. STILL UNCERTAIN AS TO WHAT HAPPENS LATER THIS AFTN...BUT
THINKING IS THAT MAIN SHOW WILL BE THROUGH THE MORNING...SO WILL
HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY 21Z. THIS MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IF
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT OCCURS TO THE WEST. VFR CONDS SHOULD RETURN
THIS EVENING AS PRECIP ENDS AND DRYING COMMENCES.

91/DUNN

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 325 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006/

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTH TEXAS FROM THE WEST
TODAY AS A MID LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NEW MEXICO OPENS UP AND
LIFTS NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM WILL BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE AND
MOISTURE WILL BE SUFFICIENT BUT NOT OVERLY ABUNDANT SO RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL NOT BE EXCESSIVE. THE BEST CHANCE OF BRIEF HEAVY RAIN
AND ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
NORTH TEXAS NEAR A AHEAD OF A SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR SUPERCELL FORMATION...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH.

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT AS THE
MID LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
DRY/SUBSIDENT AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND WITH A BRIEF WARMUP BEFORE THE NEXT COLD
FRONT ENTERS NORTH TEXAS THURSDAY MORNING. THE PASSAGE OF THE
FRONT WILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH A CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS.

ANOTHER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WEST ON FRIDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTH TEXAS. FOR NOW WILL KEEP POPS ON THE LOW SIDE (40 PERCENT OR
LESS) DUE TO TIMING UNCERTAINTIES.

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-
TXZ159-TXZ160.

TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 2 PM TUESDAY FOR TXZ147-TXZ148-TXZ161-TXZ162-
TXZ174-TXZ175.

&&

79

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-111100-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
405 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAINLY SOUTH
OF A COMANCHE TO FORT WORTH TO SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE AS A STRONG
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS MOST OF NORTH TEXAS THIS MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER AND ONGOING PRECIPITATION...SUFFICIENT WIND SHEAR WILL
SUPPORT ISOLATED SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL
PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE EAST BY TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTH TEXAS ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED LATER THIS MORNING AND
AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS WHERE THE
SEVERE THREAT IS GREATEST.

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
454 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXZ142-101100-
MILLS-
454 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  MILLS COUNTY

AT 454 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM NEAR LAKE BROWNWOOD TO
MASON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS MILLS
COUNTY DURING THE NEXT HOUR.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE GOLDTHWAITE AND MULLIN.

VERY HEAVY RAIN...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

LAT...LON 3169 9936 3098 9906 3142 9826 3173 9849

DUNN

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
530 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXZ156-101130-

LAMPASAS-
530 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 530 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR SAN SABA...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE LAMPASAS AND LOMETA.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS
STORM.  IF THIS STORM CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE AND
INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR
LAMPASAS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3125 9854 3103 9847 3105 9807 3143 9819

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
616 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

TXZ156-101145-

LAMPASAS-
616 AM CDT TUE OCT 10 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN LAMPASAS COUNTY

AT 616 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES WEST OF LAMPASAS...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

VERY HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES ANY FURTHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR LAMPASAS COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3117 9849 3103 9847 3107 9792 3126 9804

92

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