Flash Flood Warning 52, NWS Fort Worth, TX

000 
WGUS74 KFWD 100404
FFSFWD

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1104 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TXC181-100600-
GRAYSON TX-
1104 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR SOUTHEASTERN
GRAYSON COUNTY...

ALTHOUGH NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY OVER GRAYSON COUNTY... 
NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN WERE OBSERVED OVER 
THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOODING MAY 
OCCUR AS RUNOFF FROM PREVIOUS THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES.

LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
WHITEWRIGHT...TOM BEAN...HOWE AND DORCHESTER.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

THERE ARE HUNDREDS OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS WHICH ARE POTENTIALLY
DANGEROUS IN HEAVY RAIN. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO TRAVEL ACROSS FLOODED
ROADS. FIND ALTERNATE ROUTES. IT ONLY TAKES A COUPLE FEET OF SWIFTLY
FLOWING WATER TO CARRY VEHICLES AWAY. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 3340 9674 3341 9638 3355 9638 3354 9672

$$

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AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1000 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

.UPDATE...
SFC DRYLINE RETREATING BACK WWW...ESPECIALLY S OF I-20 CORRIDOR
AND CAP STARTING TO RE-ESTABLISH OVER SRN COUNTIES WHERE SVR STORM
WATCH #322 WAS IN EFFECT. WITH NO SFC FOCUS AND BEST MID LVL FLOW
UP AROUND RED RIVER...FELT AREAS WACO/SWD TO LAMPASAS AND TEMPLE
SHOULD BE IN GOOD SHAPE THE REST OF THE NIGHT...BUT STILL MUGGY
AND WARM OVERNIGHT. WCN ALREADY ISSUED TO CANCEL SVR STORM WATCH
#322 DOWN THAT WAY. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

NEXT S/W MOVING ACROSS NRN TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK MAY RESULT IN
ANOTHER WATCH OVER RED RIVER COUNTIES OVERNIGHT PER DISCUSSION
WITH SPC...HOWEVER CAP STRENGTH STILL AN ISSUE...AS IS SWD EXTENT
EXPECTED. STAY TUNED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 920 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006/

UPDATE...
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE EXTENDING SWWD FROM STORMS BETWEEN
MCKINNEY AND SHERMAN. SEEMS ANOTHER POSSIBLE HEAT-BURST OCCURRED IN
NRN COLLIN COUNTY AS MID LVL LAPSE RATES ARE IMPRESSIVE (IN 8-9
DEG C/KM CATEGORY). ML CAPES EARLIER PRESSING 6000 J/KG WITH 35-40
KT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR EAST OF THE BOUNDARY WITH LOW LVL DEW PTS VERY
GULF COAST-LIKE (AROUND 75 DEG F)...WHICH IS MAKING THINGS ACROSS
THE ERN 1/2 OF N TX VERY VERY MUGGY.

HAVE RAISED POPS FROM DALLAS N-E TO SHERMAN...PARIS AND TERRELL
WITH SEWD PROGRESSION AND SOME SEVERE WX/HEAVY RAIN LIKELY AS
MODERATE RISK (SEE FTWHWOFWD AND SWODY1) IS NOW OUT THROUGH LATE
EVENING FOR THIS AREA. ITS HARD TO SAY WHAT WILL HAPPEN AFTER
MIDNIGHT...BUT GENERALLY LEFT HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NE 1/3 OF N TX
WITH MORE UPSTREAM ACTIVITY OVER THE TX PANHANDLE/WRN OK MVG
E/SEWD AS WELL...AS AREA REMAINS IN L/W SPLIT-FLOW ALOFT WITH A
S/W MOVING OUT OF THE SRN ROCKIES. HAVE VERY LOW OR LITTLE POPS
WSW COUNTIES WITH UNCERTAINTY OF WHAT DRYLINE WILL DO AND ARRIVAL
OF FRONT. UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

OTHERWISE...MADE TREND ADJUSTMENTS WITH ALL ELEMENTS
IN MIND FOR SKY COVER...WINDS...AND DEW PTS/RH.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006/

UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE ZFPFWD TO INCLUDE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 322
THROUGH 1200 AM CDT...FOR THE AREA AROUND WACO AND POINTS SOUTHWARD.

65/DD

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE TRENDS REMAIN THE MOST SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR THIS
FORECAST.  VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE METROPLEX SITES AND MOST LIKELY AT KACT...DESPITE
INCREASING ANVIL DEBRIS RESULTING IN HIGH-LEVEL CIGS THROUGH THE
EVENING.  HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE CELL BETWEEN KAQO-KBMQ MAY CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD KACT...AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS/CB
THROUGH 10/08Z.  MEANWHILE...COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE RED RIVER THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT EARLY
INDICATIONS ARE THAT HIGHER CHANCES FOR A COMPLEX OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE METROPLEX SITES.
THUS...WILL INCLUDE NO MENTION OF TSRA IN METROPLEX TAFS AT THIS
TIME...BUT WILL MONITOR CLOSELY THROUGH THE EVENING.  STRONG
LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ADVECT STRATUS NORTHWARD AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ONCE
AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT FEEL THAT BULK OF MVFR CIGS WILL
OCCUR AT KACT.  DISCREPANCIES IN FRONTAL TIMING CONTINUE IN MODEL
GUIDANCE...BUT EXPECT WIND SHIFT AROUND 10/12Z FOR THE METROPLEX
SITES AND AROUND 10/15Z FOR KACT.  A NARROW BAND OF POSTFRONTAL MVFR
STRATUS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AND MOVE SOUTHWARD DURING THE DAY ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH CIGS LIFTING/SCATTERING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

65/DD

DISCUSSION...
DIFFICULT FORECAST DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTIES OF THE CAP STRENGTH OVER
THE REGION. CAP IS HOLDING SO FAR...AND THERE IS AN APPARENT LACK
OF ANY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THAT WOULD CAUSE THE CAP TO
LIFT AND ERODE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS. CAPES ARE EXTREMELY HIGH AND
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR 6000 J/KG ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER FORCING IS WEAK...AND THE DRY LINE IS NOT
WELL DEFINED WHICH IS MITIGATING ANY LOCALIZED FORCING. IF A
SHORTWAVE...EVEN A WEAK ONE...APPROACHES THE AREA DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS...STORMS WILL INITIATE AND QUICKLY GO SEVERE. AT THE
TIME OF THIS WRITING...TCU IS NOTED OUTSIDE OUR WINDOW IN FORT
WORTH...AND VIS SATELLITE INDICATES THAT THE LAMPASAS AREA
SOUTHWARD IS ALSO SHOWING SIGNS OF CUMULIFORM BUILD UP. BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE IS RATHER THIN...AND AGAIN WITHOUT ANY LARGER SCALE
FORCING...RISING PARCELS ARE GOING TO ENTRAIN DRY AIR AND LOSE
THEIR BUOYANCY BEFORE REACHING THE LFC. POPS TONIGHT MIGHT BE A
LITTLE ON THE HIGH SIDE OVER THE CENTRAL CWA...BUT BECAUSE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER TO OCCUR...FEEL IT IS
BEST TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. IF NOTHING BREAKS THE CAP BY 6
OR 7 PM MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE CLEAR. THE EXCEPTION WILL
BE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING IN OKLAHOMA
WILL ORGANIZE INTO A SQUALL LINE OR MCS ALONG THE FRONT AND MOVE
SOUTHEAST AND CLIP THIS REGION LATER THIS EVENING.

HAVE KEPT LOW POPS IN THE MORNING HOURS FOR LINGERING ELEVATED
CONVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH A LITTLE
LATER THAN WAS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH VERY PLEASANT WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL TRANSITION AND BRING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT TO THE REGION. ONCE THE MOISTURE RETURNS ON SATURDAY...SO
WILL THE CHANCES OF RAIN. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE SAT NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...AND EXACT TIMING OF POSSIBLE MCS EVENTS
COMING DOWN FROM THE HIGH PLAINS IS IN QUESTION AT THIS STAGE. THE
BEST CHANCE LOOKS LIKE SUNDAY RIGHT NOW. ANOTHER FRONT SHOULD MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY WITH CONTINUED NEAR NORMAL TEMPS.

TR.92

FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT WEDNESDAY FOR TXZ156-
TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159-TXZ160-TXZ174.

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS...UPDATED/CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-101100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
841 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT
A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ALONG AND
NORTHEAST OF A SHERMAN...GREENVILLE...SULPHUR SPRINGS LINE. VERY
LARGE HAIL TO BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH ARE THE
MAIN THREATS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS AREA
THROUGH LATE EVENING...AS LONG AS STORMS REMAIN DISCREET AND SUPER-
CELLULAR IN NATURE.

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND WILL EXTEND WEST TO A GRAHAM...MINERAL WELLS...
STEPHENVILLE...GOLDTHWAITE LINE OVERNIGHT.

RICH GULF MOISTURE REMAINS ENTRENCHED OVER THE SEVERE RISK AREAS...
SOUTH OF A COLD FRONT PUSHING THE RED RIVER AND EAST OF A DRYLINE
TROUGH OVER WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS IS RESULTING IN EXTREME
INSTABILITY...WITH STRONG WIND SHEAR PRESENT ALOFT. STORMS SHOULD
CONGEAL INTO A STORM COMPLEX OVERNIGHT...NAMELY ACROSS EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS...WHERE DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BECOME THE MAIN THREATS THROUGH DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE...NAMELY EAST OF INTERSTATE 35.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND...INTO NEXT
MONDAY...AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY OVER FAR EASTERN SECTIONS OF
NORTH TEXAS OVERNIGHT...WITH LIMITED ACTIVATION POSSIBLE OVER THE
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             VAN ALSTYNE             33.42N  96.57W
05/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ALONG INTERSTATE 75.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
909 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0907 PM     HAIL             VAN ALSTYNE             33.42N  96.57W
05/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORTED ALONG U.S. 75.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
924 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0923 PM     HAIL             5 N VAN ALSTYNE         33.49N  96.57W
05/09/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED BY AMATEUR RADIO OPERATORS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
942 PM CDT TUE MAY 09 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0941 PM     HAIL             GUNTER                  33.45N  96.74W
05/09/2006  E1.00 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   AMATEUR RADIO

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
947 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TXZ094-100315-

FANNIN-
947 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 947 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SHERMAN...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BAILEY...BONHAM...DODD
CITY...ECTOR...LEONARD AND BONHAM STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

A SEVERE STORM WAS ALSO LOCATED OVER VAN ALSTYNE. IF THIS STORM
CONTINUES ON ITS PRESENT COURSE...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE
NEEDED FOR SOUTHERN FANNIN COUNTY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
958 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

TXZ095-100330-

LAMAR-
958 PM CDT TUE MAY 9 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 958 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 21 MILES
NORTHWEST OF DE QUEEN TO 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF CLARKSVILLE TO 27
MILES NORTHEAST OF DENISON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. STRONG
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THESE STORMS MAY GUST UP
TO 50 MPH IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF LAMAR COUNTY.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THESE STORMS INCLUDE ARTHUR CITY...BLOSSOM...
BROOKSTON...PARIS...POWDERLY AND SUMNER.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...AND
PEA-SIZED HAIL...CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED FROM THESE STORMS.

13