Flash Flood Warning 31, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1001 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

.UPDATE...
HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS FOR TONIGHT. HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE PLUS SOME
TRAINING...RESULTING IN A HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS.    42

&&

.UPDATE...
926 PM CDT...
ANOTHER UPDATE TO FOLLOW TO INCLUDE NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.
THUS...ALL OF NORTH TEXAS WILL BE UNDER ONE OF THE TWO SVR TRW
WATCHES UNTIL 3 AM CDT.      42

&&

.AVIATION...
655 PM CDT

TSRA WILL FLIRT WITH THE METRO TAF SITES. BEST ELEVATED CONVECTION
TO SOUTH WILL DIMINISH INTENSITY OF THOSE IN METROPLEX. TS WILL BE
NEAR ACT THRU 02Z...MORE ACTIVITY APPROACHING FROM SW LATE EVENING.
BULK OF ACTIVITY WILL BE AFTER 06Z THRU DAYBREAK WITH NEXT IMPULSE.
BL BENEATH FRONTAL INVERSION WILL REMAIN FREE OF CLOUDS AND BR...
EXCEPT DURING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA SLATED FOR
THURS AFTERNOON. 25

&&

.UPDATE...
548 PM CDT

WILL ISSUE QUICK UPDATE TO REFLECT INCREASE IN CONVECTION OVER THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THIS WILL BLEND IN WELL WITH THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PORTIONS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.     42

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
255 PM CDT

NOW STATIONARY FRONT SITS TEMPLE TO TYLER AND SHOULD BEGIN MOVING
NORTH VERY SLOWLY THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE TRYING TO FORM IN WARM
SECTOR...BUT A BIT EARLY TO TELL HOW MUCH CONVECTION WE/RE GOING
TO SEE IN THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. MY BEST GUESS IS ISENTROPIC LIFT
BEGINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON OUT WEST AND OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
SEEMS LIKE MOSTLY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS...POSSIBLY SOME
HAILERS IN THERE AS WELL. STORMS GOING IN BIG BEND AND SJT/S AREA
ARE LIKELY THE START OF IT ALL. WITH FRONT STRETCHED ACROSS CWA
ON THURSDAY...IF MORNING RAIN MOVES OUT AND SUN COMES UP TO WARM
THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...THERE IS A PRETTY VIGOROUS SHORT
WAVE MOVING INTO OUR AREA AND WE HAVE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LOCATION OF FRONT AND AMOUNT OF SUN
WILL BE THE BIG DETERMINING FACTORS ON EXACT LOCATION FOR MOST
POTENTIAL.

SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT FRIDAY AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SET IN FROM THE
WEST SHUTTING OFF PRECIP. POPS THEN LOOK LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. ON
MONDAY A NEW UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND SOME
POTENTIAL FOR POPS WILL RETURN...WILL BE CONTINGENT ON LOCATION
AND TIMING OF DISTURBANCES MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW. NEW COLD
FRONT PROGGED IN ON TUESDAY AS THAT LOW PULLS EAST.  84

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  80  60  75  58 /  10  80  50  60
WACO, TX              86  61  78  59 /  20  60  40  20
PARIS, TX             79  61  75  56 /  10  80  30  70
DENTON, TX            78  55  76  55 /  10  70  50  70
MCKINNEY, TX          79  56  75  57 /  10  80  40  70
DALLAS, TX            80  61  76  59 /  10  80  50  60
TERRELL, TX           81  59  79  58 /  10  80  40  50
CORSICANA, TX         82  62  78  59 /  20  70  40  20
TEMPLE, TX            86  64  79  59 /  30  50  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

25/42/58/92/91/82

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
1027 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-201100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
1027 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS NORTH TEXAS
OVERNIGHT...RESULTING IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AND
THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.   LARGE HAIL WILL BE
THE MAIN THREAT IN THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

HEAVY RAINS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN TWO AND
THREE INCHES ARE POSSIBLE...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS...RESULTING
IN SCATTERED EXCESSIVE RUNOFF AND FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE AN
EVEN BIGGER PROBLEM IN URBAN AREAS. AS A RESULT... A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 600 AM FOR THE AREA GENERALLY NORTH AND
EAST OF AN EASTLAND...CORSICANA...PALESTINE LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN..
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY.
A FEW TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST
WINDS...AS WELL AS HEAVY RAIN AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS.

THERE IS ANOTHER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
ISOLATED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AREAWIDE.

42

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
557 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TXZ143-192330-

HAMILTON-
557 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 557 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF HAMILTON...MOVING EAST AT 30
MPH.

CITIES IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE HAMILTON...LANHAM...OLIN AND
POTTSVILLE.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
610 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TXZ144-192345-

BOSQUE-
610 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 610 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 17 MILES WEST OF CLIFTON...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE MERIDIAN AND MERIDIAN
STATE PARK.

CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...PEA-SIZED
HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

92

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
643 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

TXZ145-200015-

HILL-
643 PM CDT WED APR 19 2006

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER UPDATE...

AT 643 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLIFTON...MOVING EAST AT 40
MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE BYNUM...CARLS CORNER...
HILLSBORO...WHITNEY AND LAKE WHITNEY STATE PARK.

PEA-SIZED HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED FROM THIS
STORM.

IF THIS STORM INTENSIFIES...A SEVERE WEATHER WARNING MAY BE NEEDED.

92

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