Flash Flood Warning 29, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
522 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

.UPDATE...
WE HAVE UPDATE THE ZONES...MAINLY TO INCREASE THE POPS AND CHANCE
OF SEVERE WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN COUNTIES. POPS
HAVE BEEN RAISED TO 50% IN THE EXTREME NORTHWEST ZONES.  #26

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006/

AVIATION....
STRONG SOUTH WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS SUNSET
APPROACHES.  HAVE NOT MENTIONED ANY CONVECTION IN THE TAFS THROUGH
THE PERIOD...AS CONVECTION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF THE METROPLEX.  ONLY
CONCERN IS THAT IF ENOUGH CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP AND TRAIN
OVER THE NW CWA...THIS MAY ESTABLISH A COLD POOL AND ALLOW FOR MORE
SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATION INTO THE LLJ.  WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS LOW ATTM. OTHERWISE...VFR CIGS
WILL LOWER TO MVFR AROUND MIDNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO FRI MORNING
BEFORE LIFTING AGAIN.  TR/92

DISCUSSION...

LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS OKLAHOMA WITH THE
DRYLINE WHILE CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN END IS SLOW TO
DEVELOP. THE ENVIRONMENT IN NORTH TEXAS IS STILL CAPPED BUT THE
CIN IS QUICKLY ERODING. A FEW STORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE
DRYLINE WILL PROBABLY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR NORTHERN
ZONES...WITH THE CHANCE FOR HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. THE MODELS
STILL KEEP THE DRYLINE OUT OF OUR CWA...THUS HAVE KEPT POPS FOR
TONIGHT ALONG THE RED RIVER.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE PLAINS TONIGHT...A
FRONT WILL DRAG TO THE RED RIVER AND STALL THERE UNTIL SATURDAY
WHEN IT LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT. THIS NORTHWARD LIFT IS A
RESULT OF ANOTHER SURFACE SYSTEM DEVELOPING OFF THE ROCKIES. THIS
SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON SUNDAY...MUCH LIKE
TODAYS SYSTEM...WITH ANOTHER DRYLINE AND FRONT. THE DRYLINE
APPEARS TO MAKE IT INTO OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES BUT NOT MUCH FURTHER
BEFORE THE FRONT OVERTAKES IT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WILL QUICKLY CUT
OFF THE RAIN CHANCES FOR A FEW DAYS. BEYOND THAT...ANOTHER SYSTEM
DEVELOPS OFF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A DRYLINE THROUGH
NORTH TEXAS ON THURSDAY...BUT HAVE KEPT ONLY SLIGHT POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR NOW.

DUE TO THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES AND SURFACE LOWS AFFECTING NORTH
TEXAS OVER THE NEXT WEEK...HAVE LEFT POPS IN JUST ABOUT EVERY DAY
IN SOME PLACE OR ANOTHER IN NORTH TEXAS. MOST OF THE POPS REMAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA DUE MAINLY TO THE STALLED
BOUNDARIES AND WEAK DRYLINES PUSHING THROUGH TO THE NORTH OF HERE.
WHILE RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT VERY BIG...THE CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ALMOST EVERY DAY AS WE TRANSITION INTO A
SPRING-LIKE PATTERN. AS OF RIGHT NOW...THE ONLY SEVERE POTENTIAL
APPEARS TO BE LATE FRIDAY IN THE EASTERN ZONES AS THE BOUNDARY
STALLS AND MAYBE SUNDAY AS THE DRYLINE APPROACHES.

TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WILL BE FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND
WARM. HAVE FOLLOWED THE MEXMOS WITH HIGHS AND LOWS...ONLY MAKING A
FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

JD/82

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR TXZ091-TXZ092-TXZ093-
TXZ094-TXZ095-TXZ100-TXZ101-TXZ102-TXZ103-TXZ104-TXZ105-TXZ106-
TXZ107-TXZ115-TXZ116-TXZ117-TXZ118-TXZ119-TXZ120-TXZ129-TXZ130-
TXZ131-TXZ132-TXZ133-TXZ134-TXZ141-TXZ142-TXZ143-TXZ144-TXZ145-
TXZ156-TXZ157-TXZ158-TXZ159.

&&

/26

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
315 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-312115-
MONTAGUE-COOKE-GRAYSON-FANNIN-LAMAR-YOUNG-JACK-WISE-DENTON-COLLIN-
HUNT-DELTA-HOPKINS-STEPHENS-PALO PINTO-PARKER-TARRANT-DALLAS-
ROCKWALL-KAUFMAN-VAN ZANDT-RAINS-EASTLAND-ERATH-HOOD-SOMERVELL-
JOHNSON-ELLIS-HENDERSON-COMANCHE-MILLS-HAMILTON-BOSQUE-HILL-
NAVARRO-FREESTONE-ANDERSON-LAMPASAS-CORYELL-BELL-MCLENNAN-FALLS-
LIMESTONE-LEON-MILAM-ROBERTSON-
315 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT ALONG AND
JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER. WHILE THE CHANCES FOR RAIN ARE
SMALL...ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

GUSTY SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20 AND 30 MPH IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN
PORTIONS WILL DIMINISH AROUND SUNSET. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE AREA UNTIL 600 PM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE... PRODUCING
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

THERE WILL ALSO BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA ALONG
AND JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER TONIGHT...MAINLY DURING THE
EVENING HOURS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             5 SW POTTSBORO          33.72N  96.73W
03/30/2006  M2.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CONFIRMED FUNNEL 7 MILES WEST OF SHERWOOD SHORES...GOLF
            BALL AND BASE BALL SIZE HAIL FALLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
813 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0807 PM     HAIL             5 SW POTTSBORO          33.72N  96.73W
03/30/2006  E2.75 INCH       GRAYSON            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            CONFIRMED FUNNEL 7 MILES WEST OF SHERWOOD SHORES...GOLF
            BALL AND BASE BALL SIZE HAIL FALLING

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
844 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0841 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DENISON                 33.76N  96.56W
03/30/2006                   GRAYSON            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            CHANNEL 12 BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTS POWER LINES DOWN SW
            DENISON IN GRAYSON COUNTY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
858 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             5 W GAINESVILLE         33.64N  97.24W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LINDSEY WITH PEA AND NICKLE WITH 40
            MPH WINDS AT 1 MILES N OF GAINESVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
858 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0855 PM     HAIL             5 W GAINESVILLE         33.64N  97.24W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL AT LINDSEY COVERED THE GROUND...
            PEA AND NICKLE SIZE HAIL WITH 40 MPH WINDS 1 MILES
            N OF GAINESVILLE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
902 PM CST THU MAR 30 2006

..TIME..    ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0901 PM     HAIL             GAINESVILLE             33.64N  97.15W
03/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       COOKE              TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            IN GAINESVILLE RECEIVING NICKLE AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL