Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Fort Worth, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
510 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

.AVIATION...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS NOW LOCATED NEAR A TYLER...WACO...LLANO LINE.
PRECIP ALONG THIS AXIS WILL MOST LIKELY CONTINUE THRU ABOUT 16Z THIS
MORNING. AS NEXT SHORTWAVE NEARS LATE TONIGHT...PRECIP WILL AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z AT ALL TAF SITES. COVERED THIS WITH A PROB30 FOR
NOW. CIGS AND VSBYS SHOULD STAY IN THE MVFR RANGE FOR THE NEXT 24
HRS. WINDS WILL BE VEERING TO THE SOUTH WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KTS AS
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST AND A LEE TROUGH FORMS ALONG THE
ROCKIES. /13

&&

.DISCUSSION...
336 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006
AFTER SOME GRAVE HUMBLING 24 HRS ON THIS CURRENT MORNINGS FCST...DESPITE
MODEL CONSENSUS...FRONT...THOUGH WEAK...DROVE FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO NEAR
A GOLDTHWAITE...WACO...CORSICANA...TYLER LINE...LEAVING AREAS TO THE
NORTH DRY...BUT ACTING AS A GOOD SFC FOCUS...ALONG WITH S/W MOVING OVER
THIS AREA FROM WEST TX AREA THAT WILL KEEP REGION VERY WET 18Z OR SO...
BEFORE S/W MOVES TOWARD LA BY AFTN WITH JUST CHANCE POPS THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...AS SUBSIDENCE/MIXING WEAK OUT THIS ACTIVITY. HAVE INCREASED
POPS OVER WACO...LAMPASAS...TEMPLE... MARLIN AND PALESTINE AREAS...WITH
SOME LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN/FLOODING NOT OUT THE QUESTION. LUCKILY...THESE
AREAS WERE SPARED LAST WEEKEND...SO NOW THEYRE GETTING THEIR SHARE...BUT
WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY AT THE MORNING PROGRESSES FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING.

OTHERWISE...A BRIEF REPRIEVE THIS EVENING...BEFORE NEXT IN A LINE OF
DISTURBANCES PUSHED TOWARD W/SW COUNTIES BY 12Z WED...THEN MOVES ACROSS
N TX DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HAVE MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS AND RAISED
POPS AGAIN...BECAUSE THIS DISTURBANCE LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE AND FRONT
WILL SLOWLY RETREAT NWD AS IT MOVES ACROSS. AGAIN SOME REPRIEVE WED
NIGHT...BEFORE MAIN UPPER LOW KICKS OUT OVER NRN OK/KS/SRN NE WITH
A DRYLINE PUNCHING IN. BEST FORCING TO BE ALONG/N OF I-20...SO WILL
HAVE HIGHEST POPS THERE...TAPERING OFF FURTHER S/SW YOU GO.

HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SFC/ALOFT SHOULD FINALLY GIVE US A FEW
DRIER DAYS FRI/SAT WITH NICE TEMPS. NOT BUYING GFS ON QPF FIELDS
OVER SRN ZONES SAT AFTN/EVENING AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SHOULD BE
STOUT AND MSTR FAIRLY SHALLOW...SO WILL LEAN WITH ECMWF THOUGHT
WITH A PACIFIC TYPE COLD FRONT AND LOW POPS FOR SUNDAY...LINGERING
ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO THE EARLY WORK WEEK AS FRONT STALLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX  72  58  71  63 /  10  20  80  10
WACO, TX              68  59  73  65 /  90  30  80  10
PARIS, TX             71  51  68  60 /  10  20  80  20
DENTON, TX            73  56  70  62 /  10  20  80  20
MCKINNEY, TX          72  54  70  61 /  10  20  80  20
DALLAS, TX            72  58  71  63 /  10  20  80  20
TERRELL, TX           72  56  70  63 /  30  20  80  20
CORSICANA, TX         69  58  71  63 /  70  20  80  20
TEMPLE, TX            69  61  74  66 /  90  50  60  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

/05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
405 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-291100-
ANDERSON-BELL-BOSQUE-COLLIN-COMANCHE-COOKE-CORYELL-DALLAS-DELTA-
DENTON-EASTLAND-ELLIS-ERATH-FALLS-FANNIN-FREESTONE-GRAYSON-HAMILTON-
HENDERSON-HILL-HOOD-HOPKINS-HUNT-JACK-JOHNSON-KAUFMAN-LAMAR-LAMPASAS-
LEON-LIMESTONE-MCLENNAN-MILAM-MILLS-MONTAGUE-NAVARRO-PALO PINTO-
PARKER-RAINS-ROBERTSON-ROCKWALL-SOMERVELL-STEPHENS-TARRANT-VAN ZANDT-
WISE-YOUNG-
405 AM CST TUE MAR 28 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF NORTH TEXAS TODAY...AND FOR ALL OF NORTH TEXAS IN THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR...WHERE LOCALIZED FLASH
FLOODING MAY OCCUR. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY...AND ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF NORTH TEXAS ON MONDAY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY AS
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND DRYLINE MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS...AND CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STORMS.
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL AGAIN INCREASE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS
ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM APPROACHES. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS TOO MUCH
UNCERTAINTY TO ASSESS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LIMITED SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

13