Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Sioux Falls, SD

000 
WWUS53 KFSD 232308
SVSFSD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
606 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

SDC067-232315-
/O.CON.KFSD.SV.W.0029.000000T0000Z-060523T2315Z/
HUTCHINSON SD-
607 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 615 PM CDT
FOR HUTCHINSON COUNTY...

AT 607 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE
HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS
LOCATED NEAR TRIPP...OR ABOUT 30 MILES EAST OF LAKE ANDES...MOVING 
NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.  ANOTHER STORM WILL BE MOVING INTO AREAS NORTH
OF SCOTLAND AROUND 615 PM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING
FOR SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4349 9807 4318 9807 4320 9772 4350 9750

$$

CHAPMAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
345 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE NEAR TERM TONIGHT...THE OBVIOUS CHALLENGE IS THE VIGOROUS
UPPER LOW AND ACCOMPANYING SFC TROF THRU THE FA. CURRENTLY AT MID
AFTERNOON...SOME ACCAS TS CONTS TO FIRE UP FM N CENTRAL NE INTO S
CENTRAL SD. HOWEVER THE MAIN CONCERN LOOKS TO BE A BIT FURTHER W
WHERE A LOBE OF CONVECTIVE LOOKING CLOUDS HAS DEVELOPED IN W
CENTRAL NEB. THAT IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL SUPPORT AND
WHEN IT GETS TO S CENTRAL SD...EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO BEGIN TO
DEVELOP RAPIDLY. THERE IS SOME LOW LVL SHEAR TO WORK WITH IN THAT
AREA...BUT LCLS REMAIN STUBBORNLY HIGH IN OUR SWRN FA LIMITING THE
OVERALL TORNADIC THREAT. HOWEVER ENOUGH LOW LVL SHEAR EXISTS TO
PRODUCE ISOLD TORNADOES IN THAT AREA ONCE THE SFC TROF GETS CLOSER
TO CENTRAL SD ACTING AS A LOW LVL FOCUS...COUPLED WITH VERY HIGH
0-3KM CAPE. AFTER THAT...SVR WX PARAMETERS ARE INDICATING A PROBABLE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SQUALL LINE MOVG ACROSS SE SD. ZERO TO 3KM TOTAL
SHEAR DOES INDICATE A BOW ECHO PROBABILITY...WITH LESS OF A HAIL
THREAT. MID LVL WINDS SHIFT RAPIDLY TO THE W BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE
WHICH SHOULD END ALL THREAT OF TS FOR THE NIGHT. THUS HAVE ENDED THE
PCPN CHCS BASED ON TIMING PREDICTION OF THE UPPER WAVE/SFC TROF/MID
LVL WIND SHEAR. KEPT LOWS UP TONIGHT TOWARD THE WARMEST GUIDANCE
READINGS DUE TO ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER AND PROJECTED SW SFC WINDS.
BEHIND THE UPPER LOW...SOME LOWER CLOUDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INFILTRATE
INTO OUR NWRN ZONES LATE TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHRA POSSIBLE.

BETTER CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM OF TWO
OCCURS LATE TOMORROW MORNING INTO TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF CWA. EXPECT SOME
ACTIVITY TO LINGER TOMORROW NIGHT IN THE EAST...BEFORE COMING TO AN
END ON THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WINDY DAY TOMORROW...WITH 30 KNOTS OF
FLOW AT 925 HPA AND 40 TO 50 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 850 HPA. MAY NEED A
WIND ADVISORY IN THE WEST TOMORROW WHERE ANY EARLY CLOUDS WILL CLEAR
ALLOWING FOR BETTER MIXING POTENTIAL...BUT WILL FORGO ISSUING
HEADLINES AT THIS POINT WITH SEVERE WEATHER WATCHES ONGOING.

EXPECT BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY MORNING IN THE
EAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF
THE AREA ON FRIDAY...ALLOWING SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME WELL
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS. THIS WILL PUMP WARM MOIST AIR
INTO THE REGION WITH THE GULF WIDE OPEN...RESULTING IN A WARM MUGGY
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. ECMWF AND GFS HINT AT A FEW DISTURBANCES
MOVING ACROSS NEBRASKA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND HAVE INTRODUCED SOME SMALL
POPS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. TEMPS WILL REALLY BE WARM ON
SATURDAY...WITH 850 HPA TEMPS OF +26 IN THE WEST AND THE LOWER 20S
EAST.  WITH A GOOD MIXING DAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
80 AND 90S ACROSS THE AREA. HAVE ALSO KEPT LOWS ON THE MILD
SIDE...WITH A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND A MODERATE
LOW LEVEL JET ON SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...STORM POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE
LIMITED WITH WARM AIR ALOFT INHIBITING STORM DEVELOPMENT.

STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ON
MONDAY...CREATING THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORMY MEMORIAL DAY. MODELS
STILL WAFFLING ON TIMING OF THE FRONT...BUT GFS AND UKMET HAVE BEEN
TRENDING TOWARDS A SLOWER SOLUTION AS SUGGESTED BY THE ECMWF AND
CANADIAN.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

MJF/BT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1137 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

SDZ038>040-050-052>071-MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098-
IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032-NEZ013-014-241200-
AURORA-BEADLE-BON HOMME-BROOKINGS-BRULE-BUENA VISTA IA-
CHARLES MIX-CHEROKEE IA-CLAY-CLAY IA-COTTONWOOD MN-DAKOTA NE-
DAVISON-DICKINSON IA-DIXON NE-DOUGLAS-GREGORY-HANSON-HUTCHINSON-
IDA IA-JACKSON MN-JERAULD-KINGSBURY-LAKE-LINCOLN-LINCOLN MN-
LYON IA-LYON MN-MCCOOK-MINER-MINNEHAHA-MOODY-MURRAY MN-NOBLES MN-
OBRIEN IA-OSCEOLA IA-PIPESTONE MN-PLYMOUTH IA-ROCK MN-SANBORN-
SIOUX IA-TURNER-UNION-WOODBURY IA-YANKTON-
1135 AM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA...
SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA...NORTHWEST IOWA...AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER AFTER 4 PM. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM INTO A
SQUALL LINE DURING THE EVENING AND MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHEAST NEBRASKA. THE STORMS WILL REACH NORTHWEST
IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AFTER 10 PM. PRIOR TO 7 PM...THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES...WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH...AND HAIL AS LARGE AS GOLF BALLS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
CHAMBERLAIN TO TYNDALL. AS THE SQUALL LINE ORGANIZES...DAMAGING
WINDS WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH GUSTS AROUND 70 MPH
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 90. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA AND
NORTHWEST IOWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AT THIS TIME...THESE STORMS ARE NOT
EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. IT WILL ALSO BE WINDY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH AND GUSTS TO NEAR 35 MPH.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE DURING THAT TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 4 PM WEST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 7 PM EAST OF THE JAMES
RIVER.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE LIKELY AFTER 10 PM EAST OF INTERSTATE
29.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/FSD. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SCHUMACHER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
355 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             5 SW KIMBALL            43.69N 99.03W
05/23/2006  E0.75 INCH       BRULE              SD   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GHARMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
438 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0348 PM     HAIL             2 NE HERRICK            43.14N 99.16W
05/23/2006  E0.88 INCH       GREGORY            SD   PUBLIC

&&

GHARMON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
504 PM CDT TUE MAY 23 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             17 S PUKWANA            43.53N 99.18W
05/23/2006  E0.88 INCH       BRULE              SD   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

GHARMON