Wind Advisory 2, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WWUS75 KFGZ 192355
NPWFGZ

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
455 PM MST THU JAN 19 2006

AZZ013-014-016-017-200100-
/O.EXP.KFGZ.WI.Y.0002.000000T0000Z-060120T0000Z/
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WINSLOW...HOLBROOK...SNOWFLAKE...
ST. JOHNS...SPRINGERVILLE...HEBER...HAPPY JACK...FOREST LAKES...
SHOW LOW...GREER...PINETOP
455 PM MST THU JAN 19 2006

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON...

WINDS HAVE DECREASED ACROSS THE AREA AND THE ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE
AT 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT WINDS TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
AT 15 TO 20 MPH AND SLOWLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
915 AM MST THU JAN 19 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY
WITH BREEZY WINDS...COLDER TEMPERATURES...AND A CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS...WITH LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AT THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS. ON
FRIDAY...EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND COOL TEMPERATURES. OVER THE
WEEKEND...A SERIES OF WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL BRING PERIODS OF
CLOUDS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING INITIAL CLOUD SHIELD
DISSIPATING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AZ AS MAIN PRECIPITATION
FEATURE CONTINUES TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD OUT OF SW UT AND SRN NV. THIS
FEATURE APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED BY THE 500 MB FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING ALONG WITH A WEAK JET MAX AND ASSOCIATED UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND AGEOSTROPHIC FLOW. THIS FEATURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AZ LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON AND
THEN MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MIXING RATIOS OF AROUND 2.5 G/KG ALONG WITH MODERATE FORCING
INDICATE LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS MOST LIKELY...ALTHOUGH A BRIEF
PERIOD OF MODERATE PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE AS THE MAIN
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING MOVES THROUGH ALONG WITH AN AREA OF
INSTABILITY AND GOOD MICROPHYSICS. DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER REALLY LIMITS
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL FOR THIS EVENT. ALL IN ALL...LOOKS LIKE A
LIGHT PRECIPITATION EVENT WITH TRACE AMOUNTS TO AN INCH OF
SNOWFALL AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM THE RIM NORTHWARD WITH SNOW
LEVELS AROUND 3500-4000 FEET...LOCALLY LOWER DUE TO INITIAL
EVAPORATIVE COOLING DUE TO THE DRY SUB-CLOUD AIRMASS STILL IN PLACE.
ADDITIONALLY GRADIENTS AND 700 MB WIND FIELDS SUGGEST STRONGER
SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LCR AND WHITE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE FEATURE...WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND IT. EXPECT WINDS TO STAY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
FEW PLACES WILL SEE GUSTS APPROACHING 40 MPH BY MIDDAY INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WILL UPDATE GRIDS AND ZONES TO INCREASE SHORT-TERM POPS A
BIT IN THE NORTH AND TWEAK CLOUD COVER.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORTWAVE RIDGE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BRING
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES BUT NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL KEEP
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ON THE COOL SIDE AND THE WIND LOCALLY BREEZY.

OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL CONTINUE. PERIODIC DISTURBANCES WILL BRING SOME INCREASES
IN CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS. NO BIG STORMS OR PATTERN
CHANGES ARE LOOMING ON THE HORIZON.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT BKN-OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH MID DAY
ALONG WITH A WDLY SCT SNOW SHOWERS AND CIGS BELOW 3000 FT ALONG
FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&
STAUDENMAIER/BOHLIN