Tornado Warning 8, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST THU JUL 27 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER
ARIZONA INTO THE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THE NORTHLAND THIS AFTERNOON AS THE AIRMASS REMAINS VERY MOIST AND
IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH GOOD LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEWPOINTS HAVE DROPPED
SIGNIFICANTLY NORTHEAST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES SOME MID-TO-UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THIS SAME AREA AS WELL.
ELSEWHERE...EVEN THOUGH STORMS HAVE BEEN A LITTLE DELAYED IN
INITIATING TODAY...WE CAN CONTINUE TO EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ON TAP ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THE PEAK OF THE ACTIVE AND VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TO BE ACROSS COCONINO FIRST AND THEN
NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES...AIDED BY A STRONG SHORTWAVE
DIVING SOUTH FROM SOUTHERN COLORADO INTO NEW MEXICO AND EXTREME
EASTERN ARIZONA.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN LOCATED TO OUR WEST FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS
RESULTING IN A NORTHERLY FLOW. THIS IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SHIFTS TO THE EAST AND ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT TO DEVELOP ACROSS AZ. THIS SHOULD BRING IN COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF
MOISTURE TO THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE FOR THE WEEKEND. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THE FLOW BECOMES MORE WESTERLY AND A DRYING TREND CAN BE
EXPECTED FOR A FEW DAYS. MAX/MIN TEMPS THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD
SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF SEASONAL NORMS AND
NON-THUNDERSTORM WINDS WILL TYPICALLY BE LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MTNS AND KAIBAB PLATEAU
THROUGH 02Z...THEN SOME STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHWARD INTO YAVAPAI AND
GILA COUNTIES. DRIER AIR MOVING INTO FAR NE ARIZONA WILL INHIBIT
STORM DEVELOPMENT. A FEW OF THE STORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE
STRONG...WITH WIND GUSTS OVER 40KT...HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. THE CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
MOVES ACROSS EASTERN ARIZONA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-280700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST THU JUL 27 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SUBSTANTIAL TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
STATE THIS MORNING. THUS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN
STRONGER SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THE COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES...INCREASED SHEAR...AND TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN SOME
STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING STRONG OR SEVERE...WITH HAIL OCCASIONALLY
IN EXCESS OF THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND STRONG GUSTS EXCEEDING 45
MPH POSSIBLE. ALONG WITH THESE CONDITIONS...HEAVY RAIN CAN BE
EXPECTED RESULTING IN LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RUNOFF. THE BULK OF THE
ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS SOUTHERN COCONINO...YAVAPAI...AND
NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES...INCLUDING THE MOGOLLON RIM AND WHITE
MOUNTAINS AS WELL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY AS
ARIZONA REMAINS UNDER A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.