Severe Thunderstorm Warning 293, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
245 AM MST SAT OCT 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTHEAST
TOWARDS ARIZONA THIS MORNING AND ACROSS THE STATE ON SUNDAY.
EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS MORNING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
DECREASE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. AFTER A DRY DAY MONDAY...WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE CHANCE FOR MORE SHOWERY
PRECIPITATION RETURNS TO THE NORTHLAND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST HAS BEGUN TO MOVE EASTWARD THIS MORNING
ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. A STRONG IMPULSE IS CURRENTLY MOVING
AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH PER SUGGESTION OF THE GFS. SHOWERS
HAVE BROKEN OUT IN THE DRY SLOT AND AC IS ALSO FILLING IN THE DRY
SLOT. THINKING AT THIS TIME THAT THE RAINBAND OVER WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTY WILL DEVELOP STRONGER
CONVECTION ALONG IT AS THIS SHORTWAVE FEATURES ROTATES NORTHEAST
AROUND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE TIMING OF THIS FEATURE WILL BE
BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z FOR WESTERN SECTIONS WEST OF A KPGA TO KPHX LINE
AND THEN DURING THE AFTERNOON TO THE EAST HOWEVER MUCH WEAKER.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON SUNDAY. THE COLD POOL ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW
WILL HELP DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. NEARLY SATURATED
PROFILES...WILL ALLOW FOR SCATTERED AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL HAVE LOWERED TO AROUND 8000 FEET DURING THE
DAY...SO PLACE ABOVE 8000 FEET WILL SEE SNOW SHOWERS WITH LITTLE
ACCUMULATION. ELEVATIONS BETWEEN 7000 TO 8000 FEET MAY EXPERIENCE
SOME RAIN AND SNOW MIXED DURING THE MORNING AND AFTERNOON.

THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY EVENING WITH
SHORTWAVE RIDGING AND DRYING CONDITIONS ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA.
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN BY
MID-WEEK NEXT WEEK. THIS SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES...BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO WARM BACK TO SEASONAL VALUES BY NEXT
WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE.
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z PACKAGE...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WITH CIGS 3-4K FT AGL WILL CONTINUE WEST OF A LINE
FROM KPGA-KINW-KPAN THROUGH 18Z...THEN SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ISOLD STORMS WILL HAVE CIGS AS LOW AS 1K FT
AGL...VSBY DOWN TO 1-2SM...ALONG WITH SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR
30KT. ISOLD TO SCT -SHRA ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM LATE SAT AFTN
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS.

DL
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

TC/JJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
700 AM MST SAT OCT 14 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
700 AM MST SAT OCT 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
THIS MORNING OVER AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAGE
TO FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON. LOCALIZED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 1.5
INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED OVER COCONINO AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES. IN
ADDITION A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

THE AREA OF ACTIVITY CURRENTLY OVER YAVAPAI AND COCONINO COUNTIES
WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BEGINS TO MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD ARIZONA. BY THIS
AFTERNOON THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL HAVE DIMINISHED
...HOWEVER THERE WILL STILL BE AN ISOLATE THREAT THAT A FEW STORMS
MAY BECOME SEVERE...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS...MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM PAGE TO
FLAGSTAFF TO PAYSON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.