Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST THU OCT 05 2006

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT PERIODS OF RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO LAST THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TO THE AREA LATER TODAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT DRIER...BUT
CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL
PRODUCE INCREASING SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS TODAY...ESPECIALLY LATER
IN THE DAY...AS SYNOPTIC FORCING INCREASES. PERSISTENT LINE OF
CONVECTION NEAR THE GRAND CANYON BEING CAUSED BY BOUNDARY LAYER
CONVERGENCE THIS MORNING...THIS SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. WILL NOT LABOR THROUGH ALL THE REASONING AGAIN...IT WILL
SUFFICE TO SAY THAT ALL THE PRODUCTS LOOK GOOD THIS MORNING. EXPECT
LOTS OF RAIN IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. NO UPDATES NEEDED. PETERSON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA BECOMING SCT-NMRS
SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT. VFR CIGS XCPT BLO 3KFT IN
THE STRONGER TSRA. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA ALL FGZ ZONES FROM NOON MST
TODAY UNTIL 6 PM MST FRIDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-061400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
430 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

A VERY MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AS
WELL AS DRY WASHES AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WATER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DB