Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-160700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SAT JUL 15 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE OVERNIGHT...MAINLY ALONG
THE MOGOLLON RIM...WHITE MOUNTAINS...NORTHERN GILA AND YAVAPAI
COUNTIES. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE AREA IS FORECAST TO BE
THE STRONGEST ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO
SUPPRESS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF THE MOGOLLON RIM THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORM TO BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS...MOGOLLON RIM...AND YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS BY
THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST INTO NORTHERN GILA AND
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS. THE MAIN THREAT TODAY WOULD BE ISOLATED
STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH ON
SUNDAY...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO WEAKEN ITS HOLD ACROSS THE
AREA. THEN FOR MONDAY AND THE REST OF THE WEEK THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE BACK INTO THE 40 TO 60 PERCENT RANGE WITH POSSIBILITY
ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AND ISOLATED
HAIL EVENTS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.