Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
900 AM MST THU JUL 06 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED...MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN NEAR NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WAS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. THIS WAS RESULTING IN A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT
FLAGSTAFF CAME IN WITH A WARM CAP AT ABOUT 550 MB WITH A MOIST AND
COOL BOUNDARY LAYER. THE CAPE ON THE MORNING SOUNDING WAS LESS THAN
100 JOULES. DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP TO GENERATE SOME EXTRA CAPE
BUT WITH SO MANY CLOUDS ACROSS ARIZONA AND THE COOL BOUNDARY LAYER
JUST LOOKING AT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE IS A 15-20
KNOT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WHICH COULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF
STORM CELLS WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED AREAS OF FLOODING. THE
THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS TODAY IS NEAR ZERO.

FOR FRIDAY AND INTO NEXT WEEK THE MID TO UPPER HIGH MOVES SOUTHWARD
SLIGHTLY BUT THE MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH
TEMPERATURE REMAINING NEAR NORMAL.

MCCOLLUM
&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z PACKAGE...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS OVER NRN AZ. EXPECT WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 KTS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS ALONG WITH LOCAL CEILINGS DOWN
TO 3 KFT. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. AVIATION
DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

ONTON
&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PHXWRKHWO DDHHMM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST THU JUL 6 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-070700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST THU JUL 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
AS A RESULT...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND THEN CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY WILL BE ISOLATED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING. THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE ACROSS THE AREA
OF THE GRAND CANYON...PAGE AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU WHERE THE BEST
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE...DAYTIME HEATING AND LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
BE LOCATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA
EACH DAY. GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.