Flash Flood Warning 74, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
310 PM MST THU OCT 05 2006

.SYNOPSIS...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA THROUGH
FRIDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BRING STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH
WINDS TO THE AREA FRIDAY. EXPECT SOMEWHAT DRIER...BUT CONTINUED
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO PERSIST OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW/SHEAR/ISENTROPIC LIFT/AND
INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A STRONG FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH THIS AIRMASS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ENHANCING HEAVY
RAINFALL. ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER TODAY WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AND
MAY BECOME QUITE BUSY EARLY FRIDAY. FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT
THROUGH THE ENTIRE EVENT...THIS LOOKS GOOD. LOW PRESSURE LINGERS
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...LOW GRADE POPS IN
PLACE TO COVER THIS. PETERSON.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS XCPT IFR CONDITIONS IN THE STRONGER TSRA.
AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA ALL FGZ ZONES UNTIL 6 PM MST
FRIDAY.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
430 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-061400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
430 AM MST THU OCT 5 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA
FOR THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY.

A VERY MOIST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA TODAY AND
FRIDAY. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS...AS
WELL AS DRY WASHES AND POORLY DRAINED AREAS...WILL SEE A SIGNIFICANT
INCREASE IN WATER FLOW TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS
THE STATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. SOME
OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

DB