Flash Flood Warning 71, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

000 
WGUS75 KFGZ 150235
FFSFGZ

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
728 PM MST THU SEP 14 2006

AZC005-025-150330-
YAVAPAI AZ-COCONINO AZ-
728 PM MST THU SEP 14 2006

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM MST FOR SOUTH
CENTRAL COCONINO AND EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTIES FOR THE BRINS BURN 
AREA IN OAK CREEK CANYON NORTH OF SEDONA...

AT 725 PM MST...INDIAN GARDENS FIRE DEPARTMENT REPORTED THAT 0.25 INCHES
OF RAIN FELL IN 20 MINUTES OVER THE SOUTHERN END OF THE BRINS BURN AREA. 
RADAR ESTIMATED THAT AROUND 0.5 INCHES FELL OVER THE THE NORTH END OF THE 
BURN AREA OVER THE SAME TIME PERIOD. THE HEAVIEST STORMS HAVE MOVE EAST 
OF THE BURN AREA HOWEVER MORE STORMS ARE DEVELOPING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND 
WILL PASS OVER THE AREA PRODUCING LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION WITH 
RAIN FALL AMOUNTS OF A COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH. 

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL LIKELY TRIGGER LIFE-THREATENING ROCKSLIDES...
MUDSLIDES...AND DEBRIS FLOWS NEAR THE BRINS FIRE BURN AREA IN OAK
CREEK CANYON...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF CREEKS...ROADS...AND NORMALLY
DRY WASHES. DO NO ATTEMPT TO DRIVE THROUGH THIS AREA UNTIL THE THREAT
HAS DIMINISHED.

LAT...LON 3486 11181 3485 11170 3503 11173 3503 11182

$$
TC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST THU SEP 14 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A LARGE BAND OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IS MOVING
THROUGH NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY. THIS BAND EXTENDS FROM THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU TO CHINO VALLEY AND IS SLOWLY MOVING EAST. EXPECT CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORMS TO AFFECT NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS EVENING WITH STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS INCREASING THROUGH FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND...EXPECT CLEAR SKIES COOL NIGHTS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A STRONG MOISTURE SURGE HAS MOVED INTO ARIZONA FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THIS ADDITIONAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS HAS INCREASED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA. EXPECT THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ARIZONA THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

A FRONTAL SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH CALIFORNIA AND NEVADA WILL
INCREASE THE WINDS THROUGH FRIDAY. BY FRIDAY MORNING THE STRONG
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL SWEEP THE MOISTURE OUT TO THE NORTHEAST LEAVING
US WITH JUST A FEW LINGERING CLOUDS. ALTHOUGH THE NORTHEASTERN
FORECAST ZONES...BLACK MESA AND CHINLE AREAS...WILL HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE PRECIPITATION THROUGH FRIDAY.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR FRIDAY BETWEEN 10 AM AND 6 PM
MST FOR SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH. THE AREAS AFFECTED
INCLUDE THE NORTHWESTERN FORECAST ZONES FROM THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO
NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY...ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO SHOW LOW AND
OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY. REFER TO PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ
FOR MORE DETAILS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...COOL AND CLEAR FALL CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BY SUNDAY MORNING LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR MOST
LOCATIONS ABOVE 6000 FT.

BOHLIN

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE... EXPECT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
WITH CIGS OF 8-10KFT MSL IN SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT 80-90 PERCENT CLOUD
COVER WITH 40-60 PERCENT COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA. EXPECT PRECIPITATION
TO END SLOWLY TONIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT ON FRIDAY
FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST. FORECAST ZONES 4>8-12>16-40.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
255 PM MST THU SEP 14 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-150700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
255 PM MST THU SEP 14 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

WIDESPREAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA INTO THE NIGHT. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
IN NATURE...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. THESE STORMS WILL
CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FRIDAY FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM MST. THE
AREAS AFFECTED INCLUDE THE KAIBAB PLATEAU TO NORTHERN YAVAPAI COUNTY
ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM TO SHOW LOW AND OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY...FROM TUBA CITY TO SAINT JOHNS. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS BETWEEN
20 TO 30 MPH SUSTAINED WITH GUSTS AROUND 45 MPH ARE EXPECTED.
THE STRONG WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY AFTER SUNSET. PLEASE VIEW THE
WIND ADVISORY PRODUCT PHXNPWFGZ FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.