Flash Flood Warning 36, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
200 PM MST SUN AUG 06 2006

.SYNOPSIS...A MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW ALOFT WILL RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF
OVER THE NORTHLAND BEGINNING MONDAY....RESULTING IN A MORE MOIST AIR
MASS MOVING FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST.  THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
GREATER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES TO PERMEATE ACROSS THE
NORTHCOUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON...LEAVING MOST OF THE AREA UNDER PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES. THE ONLY EXCEPTION IS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE REGION
WHERE THE AIR MASS IS MORE MOIST AND UNSTABLE.

THE TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S. COAST IS PROGGED TO EJECT TO THE
NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. A RIDGE SITTING OVER THE
SOUTHERN U.S. WILL GRADUALLY MOVE WESTWARD AND REPOSITION ITSELF
OVER TEXAS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW
OVER THE STATE BEGINNING MONDAY...BRINGING THE NORTHLAND BACK TO A
MORE MODERATE MONSOONAL TYPE PATTERN LASTING THROUGH FRIDAY. BY
SATURDAY...MODEL GUIDANCE WANTS TO BRING BACK THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW TO THE NORTHLAND AS A TROUGH MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN U.S..
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A FEW MORE MODEL RUNS OF THIS TO BUILD CONFIDENCE
IN THIS SOLUTION. CK

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z PACKAGE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
EAST OF A LINE FROM PAGE TO PAYSON AND ISOLD STORMS WEST OF THIS
LINE. THE GREATEST COVERAGE AND STRONGEST STORMS ALONG THE AZ/NM
LINE WHERE CIGS WILL GO DOWN TO NEAR 3 KFT AGL. COVERAGE OF TSRA
SHOULD DECREASE AFT 06Z MON. ON MONDAY...MOISTURE INCREASES INTO AZ
WILL EXPAND THE SCT TSTORM COVERAGE WESTWARD...STARTING FIRST OVER
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AROUND 18Z. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR
AMENDMENTS. 41

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 6 2006

AZZ004>018-037>040-070700-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
1000 AM MST SUN AUG 6 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

DRY AIR REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NORTHERN ARIZONA TODAY.
OUTFLOWS FROM NEW MEXICOS STORMS DEVELOPED LAST NIGHT AND MOVED
INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA...HELPING TO MOISTEN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...ESPECIALLY IN NAVAJO AND APACHE COUNTIES. AREAS EAST OF
A LINE FROM PAGE...TO WINSLOW...TO PAYSON WILL SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE EARLY EVENING. STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN...AND MOSTLY SMALL HAIL.

THE CHANCE FOR FLOODING NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL BE MODERATE
DUE TO THE SATURATED SOIL CONDITIONS...AND RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED
WITH THE THREAT OF MORE RAIN TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A RETURN TO MOIST SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON MONDAY WILL BRING
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH STORM ACTIVITY PUSHING TOWARDS THE WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.