Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2006

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 30, 2006Cass County, North Dakota; Clay County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 30, 2006, 11:18 PM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota; Clay County, Minnesota. It was in force for 42 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jun 30, 2006, 11:18 PM CDT (04:18 UTC)
Expired: Jul 1, 2006, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 42 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Clay County, MN, Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jun 30, 7:07 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	7 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 249 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1226 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -134 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2449 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 50 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 151 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 010418
SVRFGF
MNC027-NDC017-010500-
/O.NEW.KFGF.SV.W.0093.060701T0418Z-060701T0500Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1118 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
  CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF FARGO...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1113 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS
  OF 60 MPH.  THE STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR HORACE...OR 10 MILES SOUTH
  OF FARGO...MOVING TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SABIN AT 1125 PM CDT
  6 MILES NORTH OF BAKER AT 1130 PM CDT
  DOWNER AT 1135 PM CDT
  MUSKODA AT 1145 PM CDT

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4699 9723 4668 9723 4667 9626 4697 9625

$$

GV

1 follow-up statement

000 
WWUS53 KFGF 010457
SVSFGF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1157 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

MNC027-NDC017-010507-
/O.EXP.KFGF.SV.W.0093.000000T0000Z-060701T0500Z/
CLAY MN-CASS ND-
1157 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST 
MINNESOTA AND CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA EXPIRES AT 
MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1157 PM CDT...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF CENTRAL
CLAY AND EAST CENTRAL CASS COUNTIES. SO THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT MIDNIGHT CDT.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT
SATURDAY MORNING FOR WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

LAT...LON 4699 9723 4668 9723 4667 9626 4697 9625

$$

GV

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 30, 8:59 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 30, 8:59 PM CDT, 2 hours 19 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
859 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

.UPDATE...CONVECTION HAS BEEN SLOW TO START FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.
SEVERE STORMS HAVE ONLY KICKED UP NORTH OF A DEVILS LAKE TO THIEF
RIVER LINE. BUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT HAS FIRED LONG LASTING SEVERE
STORMS ACROSS THE REST OF ND IS STILL APPROACHING. EXPECT THIS
SHORTWAVE TO MAINTAIN SOME STORMS WHILE CATCHING UP TO THE COLD
FRONT. COLLAPSE OF THE 700 MB THERMAL RIDGE MAY ALSO PROMOTE
CONTINUANCE OF STORMS THROUGH MIDNIGHT. SO WILL KEEP THE ZONES/
GRIDS PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED WITHOUT AN UPDATE ATTM.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... (ISSUED 133 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006)

SHORT TERM...MAIN CHALLENGE TO BE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE POTENTIAL
THIS EVENING/NIGHT. 12Z MODELS IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND
WILL USE BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE TO EARLIER THINKING (SEE PREV AFD
AND SPC DAY 1 OUTLOOK) OF T BEGINNING DVL BASIN MID-LATE AFTERNOON
PROPAGATING E/SE THROUGH THE EVENING/NIGHT. MESO-ANALYSIS DOES
SHOW INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR SOME SEVERE WEATHER WITH
THESE STORMS. MLCAPES ACROSS THE REGION NOW 1000-3500 J/KG. 850-700MB
TEMPS STILL QUITE HIGH PROVIDING SIGNIFICANT CAP...BUT THESE
VALUES ARE LOWING ACROSS W ND AND MLCIN DECREASING. SFC TROUGH NOW
LOCATED ACROSS E ND WITH MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWING MODERATE SFC
MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE ACROSS NE ND. 500MB SHORTWAVE ACROSS W
ND WILL BEGIN TO PROVIDE DECENT DEEP LAYERED LIFT BY EVENING. DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR OF 40+KTS TO SPREAD INTO E ND BY 00Z AND FURTHER E
DURING THE EVENING. IN ADDITION...40-50KTS MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
WILL BE ACROSS FA. CONSIDERING THESE FACTORS WILL INSERT A SEVERE
MENTION FOR LATE AFTERNOON (DVL BASIN) AND THIS EVENING. HIGH
FREEZING LEVELS MAY LIMIT SEVERE HAIL...BUT WITH POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS CANNOT RULE OUT. WITH MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX STRONG WIND A
POSSIBILITY. ALSO...SPC MESO-ANALYSIS DOES SHOW VGP VALUES
INCREASING TO 0.2-0.3 M/S2 AND LCL HEIGHTS DECREASING ACROSS W
FA. A TORNADO OR TWO IS POSSIBLE WITH A STRONGER SUPERCELL.
RETURNS FROM KMBX RADAR PROPAGATING E AND WILL BE ENTERING MORE
UNSTABLE AIR BEFORE IT ENTERS DVL BASIN...WILL NEED TO MONITOR.
MODELS SHOWING 700MB LOW TO CLOSE OFF BY THE TIME IT REACHES
BDE...WIDESPREAD PRECIP TOTALS UP TO AN INCH WITH ISOLD HIGHER
AMTS SHOULD OCCUR ACROSS NW MN.

NW FLOW CONTINUES SAT-MON AS UPPER LOW SLIDES JUST S OF HUDSON
BAY. THIS WILL MEAN TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL. NOT MUCH MOISTURE
AVAILABLE...BUT THUNDER THREAT STILL POSSIBLE SUN-SUN NIGHT. DID
DECREASE POPS A BIT ACROSS THE N FA WITH BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTED
S A BIT.

LONG TERM...FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND CONTINUITY BETWEEN LONG
RANGE MODELS. MAIN FEATURE THROUGH PERIOD WILL BE RISING HEIGHTS
AS RIDGE GRADUALLY BUILDS INTO FA. ANY SHORTWAVE ENERGY ROUNDING
CREST OF RIDGE LOOKS TO BE NORTH OF FA SO WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY
FORECAST. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS SO TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

GV

Hazardous weather outlook, Jun 30, 7:26 AM CDT, 15 hours 52 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
726 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-011230-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
726 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT...
...ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN RED RIVER VALLEY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY OVER ALL OF
EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. THE
STORMS WILL DEVELOP ROUGHLY AFTER 2 PM OVER EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
MOVE INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS.

MOIST UNSTABLE WILL BE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. A WIND SHIFT
LINE OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL SWEEP ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TODAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
NEAR THE WIND SHIFT LINE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A
LINE ROUGHLY FROM NEAR FORT RANSOM NORTH DAKOTA TO MAHNOMEN TO
BEMIDJI MINNESOTA ON SUNDAY. THE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH OUT OF CANADA WHILE MOIST
UNSTABLE AIR WILL MOVE NORTH OUT OF SOUTH DAKOTA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

HOPPES

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jun 30, 9:46 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
946 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     HAIL             LANKIN                  48.31N 97.92W
06/30/2006  E1.00 INCH       WALSH              ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

Local storm report, Jun 30, 9:54 PM CDT, 1 hour 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
954 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             4 SW WHITMAN            48.12N 98.18W
06/30/2006  E1.75 INCH       NELSON             ND   PUBLIC

&&

KRAMLICH

Local storm report, Jun 30, 10:02 PM CDT, 1 hour 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1002 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0952 PM     HAIL             1 NE INKSTER            48.16N 97.63W
06/30/2006  E0.88 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   PUBLIC

&&

WBARRETT

Local storm report, Jun 30, 10:41 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1041 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
06/30/2006  E0.75 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

&&

WBARRETT

Local storm report, Jun 30, 10:45 PM CDT, 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1045 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             GRAND FORKS             47.92N 97.07W
06/30/2006  M1.00 INCH       GRAND FORKS        ND   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            MEASURED AT NWS OFFICE IN GRAND FORKS.

&&

WBARRETT

Local storm report, Jun 30, 11:10 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
1110 PM CDT FRI JUN 30 2006

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1105 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N CHRISTINE           46.59N 96.81W
06/30/2006  M68 MPH          RICHLAND           ND   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

WBARRETT

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 30, 8:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier	59 min
Jun 30, 8:02 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ramsey, Towner	58 min
Jun 30, 8:12 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Cavalier	47 min
Jun 30, 8:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	65 min
Jun 30, 9:04 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Ramsey	56 min
Jun 30, 9:19 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Walsh	56 min
Jun 30, 9:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks	67 min
Jun 30, 10:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Ransom, Sargent	48 min
Jun 30, 10:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	39 min
Jun 30, 10:49 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Griggs, Steele	56 min
Jun 30, 11:33 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Traill	29 min
Jun 30, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Kittson	53 min
Jun 30, 7:56 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Marshall	51 min
Jun 30, 10:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Polk	40 min
Jun 30, 11:09 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Otter Tail, Wilkin	66 min
Jun 30, 11:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grant	59 min
Jul 1, 12:10 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Clearwater	33 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2006 Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2006 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2006

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.