Severe Thunderstorm Warning 193, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
153 PM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

.SHORT TERM (THRU SUN)...THE FIRST TRUE CANADIAN COLD FRONT OF THE
SEASON IS ARRIVING AS ADVERTISED. THERE IS THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER...FOLLOWED A COUPLE HOURS LATER BY LOW
CLOUDS AND COLDER AIR. A LINE OF CUMULUS CLOUDS CURRENTLY FORMING ALONG
THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT AS THE FRONT DROPS INTO NRN MN. WITH PLENTY
OF SOLAR AHEAD OF THE FRONT...DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS. AN E-W LINE OF STORMS SHOULD
FIRE FROM THE MN ARROWHEAD BACK TOWARD THE RED RIVER...WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE STORMS FURTHER EAST BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AS YOU
HEAD WEST. THIS IS DUE TO THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY DROPPING INTO THE
ARROWHEAD HEADING TOWARD LAKE MICHIGAN. SMALL HAIL IS A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY WITH THE STEEP LAPSE RATES THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
LOW CLOUDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE PREVALENT OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW
SHOWERS LINGERING IN WEST CENTRAL MN.

LOW CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL ALLOW FOR LITTLE SOLAR TOMORROW...AND
WITH H85 TEMPS RANGING FROM -2C TO 3C...HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE
THROUGH THE 50S. CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR OUT FRI NITE ALLOWING TEMPS
TO PLUMMET INTO THE 30S. HIGHS ON SAT MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY OVER
FRIDAYS READINGS AS THE HIGH IN ONTARIO MOVES EVER SO SLOWLY EAST.
EVEN BY SUNDAY...TEMPS WILL RECOVER ONLY A FEW MORE DEGREES THANKS
TO AN EASTERLY TRAJECTORY WHICH DOES NOT CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVOR
MUCH WARMING.

.LONG TERM (MON THRU THURS)...KIND OF A MUDDLED PATTERN IN THE
EXTENDED WITH NO MODEL HAVING THAT GREAT OF CONTINUITY. WESTERN
RIDGE LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN WITH THE H5 FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL OR
EVEN SOUTHWEST. THIS WOULD FAVOR SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS AND A FRONTAL ZONE BACK CLOSER TO THE ROCKIES.
THEREFORE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST PCPN FREE WITH TEMPS FAIRLY CLOSE
TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...CHALLENGES FOR THE AVIATION FORECAST ARE TIMING IN
THE WIND SHIFT AND THEN LOWER CLOUDS. WIND SHIFT LOOKS TO OCCUR BY
LATE AFTERNOON FOR KGFK/KBJI AND THEN A BIT LATER FOR KFAR. AT
THIS POINT...WILL ESTIMATE LOWER CLOUDS WILL FILTER DOWN SEVERAL
HOURS LATER THAN THE INITIAL WIND SHIFT. THERE IS A SLIGHT TSTM
POTENTIAL NEAR KBJI...BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO ADD IN A TEMPO
GROUP FOR NOW.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

JCA/GODON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
657 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-081200-
WEST POLK-NORMAN-CLAY-KITTSON-ROSEAU-LAKE OF THE WOODS-
WEST MARSHALL-EAST MARSHALL-NORTH BELTRAMI-PENNINGTON-RED LAKE-
EAST POLK-NORTH CLEARWATER-SOUTH BELTRAMI-MAHNOMEN-
SOUTH CLEARWATER-HUBBARD-WEST BECKER-EAST BECKER-WILKIN-
WEST OTTER TAIL-EAST OTTER TAIL-WADENA-GRANT-TOWNER-CAVALIER-
PEMBINA-BENSON-RAMSEY-EASTERN WALSH COUNTY-EDDY-NELSON-
GRAND FORKS-GRIGGS-STEELE-TRAILL-BARNES-CASS-RANSOM-SARGENT-
RICHLAND-WESTERN WALSH COUNTY-
657 AM CDT THU SEP 7 2006

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

NG